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, 3 tweets, 1 min read
The position of most of the 21 rebel Tories is that they will support the Letwin amendment AND the prime minister’s Brexit deal. So they will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill at 2nd reading on Tuesday. So that 2nd reading in effect becomes the Meaningful Vote...
And presumably if @BorisJohnson is forced by Benn Act tonight to request three-month Brexit delay, the EU will wait till that deferred meaningful vote on Tuesday before deciding how to respond to that request (which Johnson does not want to make, and will contradict in a...
second letter).
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Robert Peston
@Peston
Three things. 1) Government may need to go for 12 Dec election because has to pass NI budget this week to keep schools and public services in province open, and LibDem’s 9 Dec would not give enough time before dissolution to pass that budget. 2) The PM will...
decide in just a few minutes that he cannot restart debate on his Brexit law, the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, before an election. He gave Labour and rebel Tory MPs till 6 to give him a pledge they would support the bill on truncated timetable. No sign of them doing that. And...
3) there has been concern that any December election would be hugely difficult for campaigners, because new electoral roll is set to be introduced 4 December. However I am told Cabinet Office would take steps to speed up publication of new electoral roll
Read 3 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
.@BorisJohnson is having one last push to get his Brexit deal approved by Parliament - with his fallback being a bill very like LibDems’ to hold a general election in December. No.10 officials are ringing those MPs who voted for 2nd reading of Withdrawal Agreement...
but then voted against the programme motion, the very short timetable to debate the bill, saying unless they commit in public by Monday pm to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill by “mid November”, the government will introduce a bill...
very like the LibDems’ bill, to amend the Fixed Term Parliament Act and hold December election.
Read 3 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
And another thing. With Labour blocking an election and Johnson shelving Brexit legislation, a Brexit extension to 31 January - the delay written into the Benn Act - will achieve precisely zilch. It guarantees the UK will request another extension at the end of January. So...
just possibly EU leaders will re-evaluate the delay they offer. It would now be rational for them to offer either a much longer extension - say till spring 2020 - to allow for an election or a referendum, or a much shorter one, to 15 Nov, to offer parliament a binary choice...
between the latest deal and no deal. Right now a delay till 31 January looks like guaranteed limbo. So maybe EU leaders will now think about playing it longer or shorter.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
As today is - once again - going to be about early General Elections, and an argument about 9 or 12 December to hold that election, here's a thread explaining all of it

#Brexit #UKGE19
In short there are 4 reasons for the argument about the date:
1️⃣ Dissolution
2️⃣ Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB)
3️⃣ Students and terms, and turnout
4️⃣ Return of Parliament
I will deal with each in turn
1️⃣ Dissolution

The argument is practical. For an election 9 Dec, dissolution will have to happen Fri 1 Nov (this week):

Can all stages of the Bill pass Commons and Lords by then?

Dissolution Tue 5 Nov means earliest Wed 11 Dec election
Read 9 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Start your week in all things #Brexit with V33 of the Brexit Diagram!

It should help you through the next few days...

Finally we are perhaps getting a little clarity?
And no, you folks over there! Wake up!

We only have 4 days to go.

Sort of.

(Source: NZZ chappatte.com/en/gctheme/uni…)
In comparison to end of last week
-% ↔️ No Deal 31 Oct
2% ↔️ Revoke by 31 Oct
4% ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️ Stalemate
-% ⛔️ Brexit with Deal 31 Oct
70% ⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️General Election 2019
15% ⬆️ General Election 2020
9% ⬆️⬆️ #PeoplesVote 2020
Read 6 tweets
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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
Taking a step back at the moment, after today it is hard to see how Boris Johnson can still legitimately claim to have "just the right amount of time" to agree _and_ ratify a #Brexit deal before October 31.

Here is a short thread looking at the timeline:
/1
The first draft of the original Withdrawal Agreement was published on 28 February 2018.

The draft was finalised on 24 November 2018, after month of careful negotiations on the text.

The UK has not put forward alternative proposals for Northern Ireland yet. /2
In November 2018, the UK government lobbied the other EU27 countries for a special #EUCO to adopt the withdrawal agreement.

Main argument was that it could not wait until the December European Council, as the UK would need 4 month to get the WA through the Commons. /3
Read 6 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So what is Olly Robbins up to in Brussels, and will he be saving #Brexit any time soon? (Yes, you don't need to answer that). But here's some thoughts. 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
So understand that, as I think @Mij_Europe first mentioned, the focus of meetings is on examining texts that might "entrench" whatever promises Labour get from Tories in this negotiation - and the current focus of this is in text of Withdrawal Agreement Bill. /2
@Mij_Europe It goes without saying that all this is moot if Tories and Labour cannot agree a deal. And with Labour digging in on Second Referendum requirement and Tories spooked by Brexit Party and prospects of customs union deal...it's hard (to put it kindly) to see how a deal happens/3
Read 19 tweets
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Christopher James
@ChrisJames_90
THREAD 🧵🤓

🗳 What are #Brexit Indicative Votes?

🤔 How will the process work?

💡What ideas have been tabled?

🚨 Bare with me on this one... hopefully it’s worth a couple of minutes ☕️ 🚆 🚌
On Monday, MPs approved Sir Oliver Letwin’s proposal to give control of the Commons Order Paper on Wednesday 27 March to backbench MPs so that they could hold indicative votes on alternatives to the Prime Minister’s #Brexit deal.
The decision to back ‘The Letwin Amendment’ was seen as controversial as it disapplied a Commons rule - Standing Order 14(1) - which says that the Government largely controls what business is debated in the House.
Read 25 tweets
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
#Brexit thread:

So. Tomorrow the House of Commons will vote on a series of possible amendments to Theresa May's 'Plan B' - or rather the 'plan of action to achieve a Plan B' - which itself officially reads as follows:
The amendment most likely to pass – and therefore the one on which most attention has been paid – is this one from Conservative party chairman Sir Graham Brady. It's effectively an instruction to go back and seek *some unstated other way* to avoid a hard border in Ireland:
Tonight, Theresa May has asked her backbenchers to vote in favour of this amendment. She is basically asking them to tie her hands, so that Brussels will clearly know what it would take to win the Commons' backing for any deal.
Read 9 tweets

Trending hashtags

#NoDealBrexit #ThirdReading #LordYawnington #Amendment1 #A50 #extension #SOS #Dover #YvetteCooper #Tory #PeoplesVote #2ndReferendum #PMQs #PutitothePeople #May #Brexit #NoDeal #PutItToThePeople #MainThread #Article50 #CooperBill #Disgrace #DUP #ToryParty #BrexitBus
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