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, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Start your week in all things #Brexit with V33 of the Brexit Diagram!

It should help you through the next few days...

Finally we are perhaps getting a little clarity?
And no, you folks over there! Wake up!

We only have 4 days to go.

Sort of.

(Source: NZZ chappatte.com/en/gctheme/uni…)
In comparison to end of last week
-% ↔️ No Deal 31 Oct
2% ↔️ Revoke by 31 Oct
4% ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️ Stalemate
-% ⛔️ Brexit with Deal 31 Oct
70% ⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️General Election 2019
15% ⬆️ General Election 2020
9% ⬆️⬆️ #PeoplesVote 2020
Why is this?

EU looks odds on to give an extension this morning

The Lib Dem / SNP effort to get a General Election on 9 Dec, using only a Simple Majority, is likely to broadly work and has not been rejected by the Government
And if General Election efforts fail, there are not really any other ways out other than to aim for a People's Vote instead

Simply aiming to agree the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) is not anyone's priority right now
Link to the high res PNG:
brexitdiagram.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/brexit…

High res PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

Blog post with all the explanations:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
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More from @jonworth see all

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
A quick thread on voting rights and UK General Elections
Who has been able to vote in UK General Elections until now?
- Brits over 18 y old, resident in UK
- Brits overseas for less than 15 years and who were once on an Electoral Register
- Commonwealth citizens resident in the UK (note: includes 🇲🇹🇨🇾 in 🇪🇺)
- Irish citizens in UK
Who I would *like* to have the voting rights in an ideal world?
- Brits over 16 y old, resident in the UK
- Brits overseas, regardless of how long they have been away
- Anyone with permanent residence in UK (Commonwealth, EU citizens, indeed from anywhere else)
Read 10 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
There was a guy with a thing called #BrexitDiagram

In May he started the third series of these diagrams

Sometimes he wondered if it was time well invested
In version 1 on 22/05/2019 total chance of a General Election was 54%
In version 2.1 on 25/05/2019 total chance of a General Election was 60%
Read 45 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
As today is - once again - going to be about early General Elections, and an argument about 9 or 12 December to hold that election, here's a thread explaining all of it

#Brexit #UKGE19
In short there are 4 reasons for the argument about the date:
1️⃣ Dissolution
2️⃣ Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB)
3️⃣ Students and terms, and turnout
4️⃣ Return of Parliament
I will deal with each in turn
1️⃣ Dissolution

The argument is practical. For an election 9 Dec, dissolution will have to happen Fri 1 Nov (this week):

Can all stages of the Bill pass Commons and Lords by then?

Dissolution Tue 5 Nov means earliest Wed 11 Dec election
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU taking in the news of the votes in parliament just now. Leaders had been holding back talking in concrete terms about extension, hoping it might not be necessary. Now those Intra EU discussions begin in earnest /1
High level EU source says to me : „An extension now appears inevitable“ /2
EU leaders are reluctant to rush back to Brussels for an emergency summit for #Brexit - again but if they can’t easily agree among themselves on the extension (how long, any conditions attached etc) they may decide a summit on next few days is unavoidable /3
Read 3 tweets
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Inky
@inkysparks
Hank, the grumpy shepherd living in a cottage in the mountains in self-imposed exile, tending to his many, many sheep and his very large dog.
Connor, the vagabond that twists his ankle traipsing carelessly through his fields during a rainstorm.
The storm is not at its peak yet. The sheep are huddled a little closer, some of them seeking the shelter of trees and shrubbery, but the worst clouds are still far away. Hank sees a brief flash, then thunder rolls what feels like half a minute later.
Read 500 tweets
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Richard James
@RichJamesBits
I have reached a whole new level of #PISSEDOFF.

I didnt think such a #dark and #scary state, or level, could be reached. It may top 12-14-17's causation. It's. That. Bad. So, I've prepared a statement...

docs.google.com/document/d/1_J…

#PascoSheriff #HaveYouAllNoShame @CigarCityBeer
Dear @FBI,
I must implore you ask your colleauges in @FBITampa to help research this new level of #PISSEDOFFNESS. As locals, they may offer a special indepth knowledge of this new level I have reached. This is not fair & law enforcement must #investigate. No one deserves this.
This is my #apogee of #Pissedoffness.
If #motherfuckers & #tears werent a noticable level.
If #HUSH or #INTIMIDATION tactics being deployed didnt strike a chord.
If #EVIDENCE, PROOF, or 30k Bonds didnt #WOW YOU.
If posting mom with no shred of investigatable value wasnt enough...
Read 463 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Let's talk about a new, straight forward kind of politics
Let's look back at what Corbyn has done, and more importantly not done, over the past few weeks on #Brexit & a #PeoplesVote
Sneak peak: it definitely wasn't "for the many"
2) Firstly, it was an open secret that Corbyn & all other party leaders knew that a Vote of No Confidence was *never, ever* going to succeed.

Every Tory MP would vote for May (as they did) and the DUP was never going to vote for "United Ireland" Corbyn
Whole thing was a farce
3) so all the talk, by multiple Labour Front benchers on "timing" & "not playing games" when it came to the VoNC was either a deliberate lie or gullibility.

The timing made no difference because the chances of May losing it were vanishingly small
Read 15 tweets
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Tim Durrant
@timd_IFG
When all the #Brexit chat is about parliamentary shenanigans it’s easy to forget that these decisions will have real-world impacts, including a potential #nodeal… here’s a quick look at where #nodeal planning currently stands:
1. First the good news: the Government has struck agreements with the USA, Canada and 8 other countries to ensure flights can continue even in the case of no deal (nothing yet on flights to/from/within EU countries though)

gov.uk/government/new…
2. And the Government’s lottery for road haulage permits has opened – so if you’re a haulage company that wants to transport goods across the EU after a #nodeal Brexit, get your application in now for a 5% chance of securing a permit (h/t @RHANews)

gov.uk/guidance/ecmt-…
Read 10 tweets
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Nina Schick
@NinaDSchick
'European Press Reaction,' to #Brexit thread time. It's been a while, always good get some perspective. (Will add more during the day). /1
Comment in @DLF, leads: "Britain's departure from the World Stage." - "Brexit is political idiocy. By today, every observer should have realised by now that the United Kingdom will not only leave the EU but, above all, leave the world stage."2/
.@DLF: "Brexit is the biggest political idiocy since the Roman Emperor Caligula decided to appoint his favorite horse Incitatus as consul. Anyone who needed further proof of this thesis has received it today." 3/
Read 18 tweets

Trending hashtags

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