So, there’s something of an accidental unexploded bomb buried in The Deal. It’s unlikely to explode, but it’s there. It goes like this (stick with me...)
1. The WA is not supposed to establish permanent new governance for N. Ireland, because it’s a divorce document (remember?)
1. The WA is not supposed to establish permanent new governance for N. Ireland, because it’s a divorce document (remember?)
2. As Boris Johnson has been suggesting, any new FTA could, legally, replace the arrangements for Northern Ireland. All it takes is for Northern Ireland to vote to withhold consent from The Deal...
3. What do you mean? Well, The Deal says Northern Ireland defaults to whatever UK arrangements are in place if it withholds consent for the special arrangements governing its relationship with the EU.
4. So what? Well, the unionist community of NI is angrier and more united than people expected. Can it harness this anger, politically? Only two years ago it had a majority in Stormont remember. Could it assemble one again? It’s not impossible...
5. But what does this mean? Some very influential figures believe merely the possibility that there could be a hard border two years after a vote (five years and two months from now) is seriously problematic for Dublin. Why?...
6. The theory goes like this: Because it creates the very risk they wanted to destroy...
7. The key point, some very senior people told me, is this: What does this do to the next round of negotiations? Some believe Ireland may feel more pressure to engage directly with unionists on the dreaded—wait for it...—*ALTERNATIVE ARRANGEMENTS*... 🤯😭😱
8. “So you’re saying this whole thing might not be sorted after all and we might still be having this exact same argument for the next half a decade?” Well, yes, basically...
9. “Really? Is this *really* a thing?” Well, it all rests on the people of Northern Ireland. What does middle unionism do? Does it rally to the unionist cause or rally to the Alliance/pro “backstop” cause? Who knows? That’s democracy
10. Some tentative conclusions can be drawn. Varadkar took a bigger gamble than people recognise. There’s a lot of logic to his gamble though: polls, demographics, simple conservatism. But it’s a gamble. What if Northern Ireland really does withhold its consent?
11. Some reply (and they’re right) that the EU’s leverage over Britain never goes away, so the same tough questions will remain for Britain and unionism. True. But that’s another way of saying THE CRISIS MAY NEVER GO AWAY... /ends/
