A thread about colleges closing, and speculation about how many there might be. Get ready: There is some math involved.
I went to IPEDS and downloaded all enrollment at post-secondary institutions in the US that receive Title IV funds.
This is Fall 2017 data: Some context:
I went to IPEDS and downloaded all enrollment at post-secondary institutions in the US that receive Title IV funds.
This is Fall 2017 data: Some context:
There were 17,932,383 undergrads enrolled in 7,353 post-secondary institutions.
Let's get rid of for-profits. That leaves us with 16,219,487 in 3,822.
Let's also only look at four-years: We're now at 9,532,180 in 2,714.
Let's get rid of for-profits. That leaves us with 16,219,487 in 3,822.
Let's also only look at four-years: We're now at 9,532,180 in 2,714.
Cutting down to four-year, privates, it's 2,766,899 in 1,760 institutions.
Let's say the smallest 825 four-year private colleges all closed at once. What percentage of students at four-year privates attend THESE 825 four-year privates?
Guess.
Let's say the smallest 825 four-year private colleges all closed at once. What percentage of students at four-year privates attend THESE 825 four-year privates?
Guess.
First, of course there is an assumption that the smallest 825 are most vulnerable. That's probably not true, as many of them are Yeshivas or Bible Institutes.
Download your own data if you want to get fancy.
Now, guess.
Download your own data if you want to get fancy.
Now, guess.
It's 5%, or about 138,345 students of the 2.7M.
Against the larger backdrop, it's .77% (about three-quarters of one percent) of all the 17.9 M undergraduates.
Against the larger backdrop, it's .77% (about three-quarters of one percent) of all the 17.9 M undergraduates.
So, as I've indicated, it's likely some colleges will close in the not-too-distant future. But four-year, very small, private colleges and universities are just a sliver of the market.
And against demographic and geographic shifts in the US population, and student propensity to enroll within 250 miles of home, it's probably not unexpected. It may even be a good thing to keep the industry healthy.
It's important to be aware of trends of course, but counting the number of colleges that close in a given year is pretty foolish as a thing unto itself.
And, yes, colleges closing can be devastating for faculty, employees, students, and even cities. I know that.
And, yes, colleges closing can be devastating for faculty, employees, students, and even cities. I know that.
So be aware of what's going on in the market. But don't get your shorts in a knot.
Oh, and #EMTalk
One little correction: I made two little boo-boos on this. First, I forgot to remove "Administrative Units" and some four-year, private not-for-profits that do not enroll undergrads. The details change a bit, but the message is the same. 
