Senior EU officials bemused by what's happening in London & Parliamentary guerrilla warfare that's about to kick off this week. One tells me "It's time to get the popcorn ready." Most don't expect a MV today. Most believe (as do we) @BorisJohnson now has numbers for his deal 1/6
They also recognise that CU amendment is key signpost to watch this week. Ministers very worried about it. Vote will be on a knife edge. If it does go over, views about what it means/how EU will respond are unclear. Not yet discussed. Some senior officials point to May's deal 2/5
"We have a solution that's ready and off the shelf - and that's May's deal." Others ponder "whether it would require going back to the negotiating table - but with what/who?" It's clear that the Govt doesn't want it. EU doesn't negotiate with Parliaments 3/5
Yet other senior EU officials suggest it would require a whole new "negotiation" on LPF conditions (removed from WA & now in PD), especially dynamic alignment regarding state aid; tax & dispute settlement. Fair to say there's some degree of confusion. So will CU go over line? 4/5
DUP is holding out for concessions on consent. London & Dublin were given fair degree of leeway on mechanism's “principle & modalities”. But unlikely EU would now consider or agree to major changes to deal. Yet even if DUP support Govt/abstain, Govt on paper could still lose 5/6
BUT in April, CU lost by 3 votes. Some of 36 Tories who supported it then will not do so this time as it's seen as a wrecking amendment. If 2nd reading approved, momentum will be with @BorisJohnson. Will add to pressure on Tories and ex-Tories ENDS
