Thread by @pmdfoster

🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 It's actually worse than this, since UK must agree to extend transition in by July 1 2020.

But we only paid up Dec 31 2020, so that is going to mean new negotiation on 💶💶💶💶💶💶💶💶💶💶

Now. Consider the timetable... 1/Thread

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1186373549025615878

The new @EU_Commission won't start now until December.

@BorisJohnson is going to have an election.

Officials on both sides clear that trade negotiation mandates and negotiations very unlikely to start before Spring 2020. Say March 1st. /2

@EU_Commission @BorisJohnson The UK, per Withdrawal Agreement (Art 132) must notify of decision to extend the implementation period by *July 1 2020.

That's THREE months after likely start dates of negotiation.

Which means... /3

@EU_Commission @BorisJohnson That almost IMMEDIATELY the UK-EU trade talks begin, the UK is going to be plunged into a new financial negotiation.

That will be politically toxic, since, per the Withdrawal Agreement, the UK is to be treated as a fully-fledged 'third' country. What does that mean? /4

@EU_Commission @BorisJohnson That with UK not part of EU's 2020-2027 budget, and not subject usual calculation mechanisms, the EU can basically "think of a number".

It will depend if the price is right - for both sides. That's a recipe for toxic negotiation. /5

@EU_Commission @BorisJohnson Even worse, it's quite possible it'll be MORE than the current 10bn euros net annual contribution, since the next MFF (7-year budget cycle) is bigger and the rebates will have gone.

How is that going to play so soon after an @BorisJohnson #brexit election??? /6

@EU_Commission @BorisJohnson As @hilarybennmp points out, it is for a "minister of the crown" to decide (with Joint Committee that governs WA) and agree upon an extension.

So imagine forward just a few months... /7

@EU_Commission @BorisJohnson @hilarybennmp The voters have been told they're about to be 'free' of the EU...all that lovely lolly to spend on our NHS "Yayyyyy, freeeeeeedom!"

And pretty much first thing they hear is: "er sorry, but first we need to pay the EU 10bn euros a year or more for another two years. /8

@EU_Commission @BorisJohnson @hilarybennmp Because we will.

Because even the most determinedly optimistic Brexiteer must know that a Free Trade Deal can't be done with the EU in nine months?

And yet Parliament will have no ability to mandate an extension.../9

@EU_Commission @BorisJohnson @hilarybennmp At that point, the EU will have its £39bn financial settlement in law, and its guaranteed citizens rights...but it wont want a hard crashout onto WTO terms, one presumes, any more than UK does.

But just like 2016/2017 there is NO effort at realism on money/timetables /10

@EU_Commission @BorisJohnson @hilarybennmp Remember @BorisJohnson saying EU could 'go whistle' for its money - but we paid up.

Perhaps the answer will lie in just how 'Spartan' the Tory party has become after this next election /11

@EU_Commission @BorisJohnson @hilarybennmp Each #brexit cycle the lag-time between big promises and capitulation gets smaller and smaller.

It took @theresa_may 18 months to climbdown; @BorisJohnson less than 3....

If we have a spring election, the next collision with reality could be matter of weeks. ENDS.