Thread by @pmdfoster

Can't decid whether it's worth engaging seriously with this govt 'ruling out' anything....it's an election season, and my guess is that ultimately it will depend on the result.

But some quick observations 1/thread

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1191663587019935744

1. If the UK wants an extension to transition (one time, up to 2 years) then the money part must be sorted by July 1. See thread passim. that means money talks in spring next year. Politically tough. /2

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1186578158633570304?lang=en

2. You can already purist/hardliners like @danielmgmoylan starting to argue that a WTO-terms #brexit at the end of 2020 isn't too far shy of a barebones FTA anyway.

And if you look at the modelling and reports from @SamuelMarcLowe et al, that's right long term. BUT.. /3

@danielmgmoylan @SamuelMarcLowe 3. It's important to note that these projections (-4% to -7% GDP off base by 2030) are smoothed out over a decade.

SO 0.4%-0.7% "lost GDP" is manageable, but the modellers, like @jdportes will tell you that they models don't plot the pain over time. It may be front-loaded./4

@danielmgmoylan @SamuelMarcLowe @jdportes So politically, if @BorisJohnson had a majority that enable him to sideline the ERG clean-breakers in order to do a decent FTA over time (2-3 years) that could avoid cliff-edge disruptions for autos/financial services etc. Might make sense. /5

@danielmgmoylan @SamuelMarcLowe @jdportes @BorisJohnson My read on the "pivot" of the Johnson #Brexit deal (near total capitulation to @MichelBarnier NI-only deal of 2018) is that @BorisJohnson will cave if he has political space to do so. /6

@danielmgmoylan @SamuelMarcLowe @jdportes @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier In any event as @SamuelMarcLowe in his must-read 2018 report on #brexit and services any FTA squeezes services hard, since EU unlikely to offer UK huge extras to other trade partners and force UK coys to establish in EU (and pay taxes there!) /7

cer.eu/in-the-press/b…

@danielmgmoylan @SamuelMarcLowe @jdportes @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier IF Johnson has no political space and is forced to take the WTO hit, also worth noting that this is NOT a 'no deal' crashout.

The UK will have fixed citizens/money/NIborder which creates a different political climate potentially. /8

@danielmgmoylan @SamuelMarcLowe @jdportes @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier This could pave the way to the EU being more accommodating as the UK grinds its way to a new eqilibrium under WTO rules - but why anyone thinks that's an advantageous place for the UK to end up beats me. /9

@danielmgmoylan @SamuelMarcLowe @jdportes @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier But this is phase 2 #Brexit choice:

1) drawn out negotiations; pay £££ and sort out fishing access/aviation etc by June 2020

OR

2) go onto WTO terms, risk shock/dislocation for key industries and go hard (while gravity over time probably grinds you to opt 1)

See you in Jan!