Thread by @pmdfoster

Right. So #Brexit extension update...the clue is here, I think - in @BorisJohnson reply to Ken Clarke, which as I observed in PMQs suggested that Johnson is not pushing an 'alternative date' at the EU /1 thread

@BorisJohnson Now, he might be pushing a short extension date in private, but that seems unlikely because a) his position vis a vis want no extension and risk of leak from EU side and b) dubious legality of doing that given Benn Act /2

@BorisJohnson So Johnson is saying "it's in hands of EU"

And EU is saying "we want to hear from Mr Johnson what he wants".

Mmm...that sounds like a kind of stalemate. /3

@BorisJohnson There has been talk of a 'short' extension - say to December 1 (start of new Commission) or Dec 15 (next #EUCO) or even a few weeks to mid-November...but what the point?

We know the EU won't back 'no deal'; we know Johnson and Commons don't want no deal. So who are we kidding?/4

@BorisJohnson The EU could offer a micro or 'technical extension - but they'd know, as would the opposition - that if it all went pear-shaped, they'd have to extend again.

No deal kidology is so last summer /5

@BorisJohnson And in any event, if Johnson does put his bill back (which seems unlikely given apparent ascendancy of the pro-election before #Brexit crowd) then granting an extension per request to January 31 2020 still works.

If by some miracle the deal goes through, the extension lapses/6

@BorisJohnson As said this morning. All extension are 'flextensions'.

So @eucopresident may have (again) annoyed member states by apparently jumping the gun and pre-empting discussion (as he did in March) but it's not really that clear how much there is to discuss /7

@BorisJohnson @eucopresident What do the French think they'll achieve by going short, to say Dec 1?

Is it tipping the balance against an election, for which there wouldn't be time - without another extension - which would come if needed, since the EU wont' deny the UK the chance to exercise democracy/8

@BorisJohnson @eucopresident The French could dig in - I'd not put it past @EmmanuelMacron who has axes to grind - and we'd get the same halfway house type compromise we got in April, when Macron dug and a middle path was accepted /9

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

@BorisJohnson @eucopresident @EmmanuelMacron But to what end? If Johnson can't/wont demand different date..

...and EU doesn't want to put its finger on the balance of UK politics (which it can't unless its really prepared to force a no deal, which I don't see that it is) then...

...the only answer is Jan 31 2019. 10/ENDS