Thread by @pmdfoster

Demented. Do the maths! HU trade with EU =79% of total trade. It's main markets are Germany ($29.2B), Romania ($5.83B), Italy ($5.79B), France ($4.8B) and Austria ($4.68B). Top import origins are Germany ($26.1B). Go figure 1/

https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1185990368795463680

And what about Poland? Yes, its 2nd biggest export market is UK ($13.8B)...but what about the top one? Ah yes, doh, yup, you guessed Germany ($54.5B) - nearly four times bigger Cz Rep ($12.7B), France ($11.7B) and Italy ($11B). Top import origin? Germany ($55.2B). /2

So while I'm sure Daniel Kawczyski @DKShrewsbury powers of persuasion are legendary (I can speak Polish, you know) the reality is that its Germany that butters Hungarian and Polish bread, crudely put.

Which might explain why... /3

@DKShrewsbury ....for all the tough talking, when it comes down to it Poland and Hungary are meek as lambs when they sit down in EU27 context. Poland tried once to freelance in a GAC meeting and got torn to pieces by other Member States. /4

@DKShrewsbury I know all this is utterly, tediously obvious, but fact it needs repeating is symptomatic of the blindness of UK faith in its own power.

Three negotaitions in a row - Cameron, May, Johnson - we've promised BIG and come away with tail between legs. /5

@DKShrewsbury And yet there is no sign of any strategic learning. None. Same old gibberish.

Except the net negotation (not this pesky, protracted divorce) is the one that is going to make real, material changes to people's lives.

I keep saying gravity will take over... /6

@DKShrewsbury But when you see Tweets like this, you wonder if it's going to be a glide path downwards to reality, or landing with a very hard bump./7

Politically, if this un-realism persists, that bump when it comes is going to be more corrosive/divisive.

More "betrayal" and "plot" rubbish as a camouflage for lazy thinking. 8/ENDS