Thread by @3solarmasses

Consider the following scenarios:

1. Ethereum fails to deliver a scalable PoS network and holders see another 90% decline.

2. Ethereum delivers a scalable global settlement network.

Let’s embrace extrapolation for a minute and consider the potential of scenario 2.

(thread)

A) Global equities settle on Ethereum. There’s no closing bell or rent-seeking clearing houses, and the history of every transfer is fully transparent.

Etherscan can now present you with a cap table for any company in seconds.

Global market cap for stocks: $73 trillion.

B) Fiat stablecoins emerge for every major world currency. Transfers are nearly instant, cheap, & 24/7 with Ethereum as the backbone.

$30 payment between 2 friends? Cost: $0.02
$100 million transfer between 2 banks? Cost: $0.02

The global value of broad money is $90 trillion

C) Real estate ledgers become databases of Ethereum addresses. Balkanized resources like the MLS merge into a single global graph. Get a loan in 30 seconds with your non-fungible house token as collateral.

Total global real estate is estimated to be around $220 trillion.

D) We can’t talk finance without leveraging up. None of this would be fun unless you could algorithmically mix these things and fomo into a 5x long or 3x short on the underlying assets.

Welcome to the derivatives market. Total estimated value: $1.2 quadrillion.

Which brings us back to Ethereum and its tiny market cap of ~$20 billion.

If a nontrivial amount of the $1.2 quadrillion derivatives market were to be settled on Ethereum in the future, what is the value of this base service?

No clue, but I do know that a $1 trillion market cap for the issuance & transfer of underlying collateral worth hundreds of trillions seems like a small estimate.

Well, this small estimate would equate to a price per ETH of over $8,000.

/fin