Thread by @CliffvdLinden

THREAD: Some preliminary insights into the dynamics of #elxn43 as observed from the 1.9 million responses to @VoteCompass.

The data are weighted to control for selection bias and thus permit representative inferences as to the population of Canadian voters.

#cdnpoli [1/12]

@VoteCompass The findings from @VoteCompass differ from #elxn43 polls both in terms of the size of the sample and the fact that it is continuously accrued across the course of the campaign. [2/12]

@VoteCompass Among voters who voted differently in #elxn43 than they did in #elxn42, the highest level of vote switching was from the @NDP to the @liberal_party.

In 2019, the Liberals lost a roughly equivalent share of their 2015 voters to the @NDP and @CPC_HQ.

#cdnpoli @VoteCompass [3/12]

@VoteCompass @NDP @liberal_party @CPC_HQ The @BlocQuebecois lost the fewest votes from its 2015 base of any party.

The @CPC_HQ also managed to hold onto a big share of its voters from #elxn42. Its largest losses of 2015 supporters were in Ontario, but it gained more voters from the Liberals than it lost to them. [4/12]

@VoteCompass @NDP @liberal_party @CPC_HQ @BlocQuebecois At the outset of #elxn43 the @liberal_party and the @CPC_HQ tussle for the lead in vote share, with the Liberals falling behind after the blackface revelations. Despite a modest recovery, they lag the Conservatives in vote share throughout the second half of the campaign. [5/12]

@VoteCompass @NDP @liberal_party @CPC_HQ @BlocQuebecois The largest gains across the course of the #elxn43 campaign are made by the @NDP. It sees a considerable rise in vote share, particularly in the last quarter. The @CanadianGreens lose momentum in the latter half of the campaign, though see a slight bump just before e-day. [6/12]

The @peoplespca makes no discernible gains during the campaign. The trend indicates that the @CPC_HQ-backed play by @DaisyGrp to undermine the new entrant to federal politics had little impact. There was little support to siphon off in the first place. [7/12]

@peoplespca @CPC_HQ @DaisyGrp Voter evaluations of @JustinTrudeau's competence and trustworthiness remain relatively consistent across the campaign. We see a slight but discernible dip following the blackface revelations, but the Trudeau brand ends off about where it was at the outset of the campaign. [8/12]

@peoplespca @CPC_HQ @DaisyGrp @JustinTrudeau The largest gains in voters' perceptions of the party leaders' trustworthiness and competence were made by @theJagmeetSingh.

@AndrewScheer saw a mild decline in his evaluations by the end of the #elxn43 campaign. [9/12]

@peoplespca @CPC_HQ @DaisyGrp @JustinTrudeau @theJagmeetSingh @AndrewScheer The @liberalparty saw the greatest benefit from strategic voting. Of all votes cast for the Liberals, 9% were considered strategic and came mostly from @NDP voters. [10/12]

@peoplespca @CPC_HQ @DaisyGrp @JustinTrudeau @theJagmeetSingh @AndrewScheer @liberalparty @NDP But the @NDP also saw 6% of its total vote share come from strategic voting, largely from @GreenParty voters. Strategic voting does not appear to have had much influence on voters for the other parties. [11/12]

@peoplespca @CPC_HQ @DaisyGrp @JustinTrudeau @theJagmeetSingh @AndrewScheer @liberalparty @NDP @greenparty Stay tuned for @VoxPopLabs’ full analysis of #elxn43, which will be published in the days ahead at voxpoplabs.com. #cdnpoli [12/12]