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, 6 tweets, 4 min read
So after yesterday's tension, today's confusion...

#BrexitDiagram V32 should help you through this!

Prepared for this evening's #UDEbrexit event with @OSchwarzUDE in Duisburg
In comparison to yesterday
-% ↔️ No Deal 31 Oct
2% ↔️ Revoke by 31 Oct
36% ⬆️⬆️ Stalemate
-% ⛔️ Brexit with Deal 31 Oct
47% ⬇️⬇️⬇️ General Election 2019
13% ⬆️⬆️ General Election 2020
2% ↔️ #PeoplesVote 2020
The ordering of this one is important.

Based on what @JenniferMerode @nick_gutteridge @BrunoBrussels and others are reporting, the EU will only decide Friday on an extension

That means a Queen's Speech vote should come first
Also in light of discussion with @kcorrick @symroe and others, trying to get an election done in 2019 is complex now (5 Dec is the most likely), the chances a GE is pushed to 2020 are up
Also I discussed the odds here with @NvOndarza in the train en route to #UDEbrexit - we both still reckon that Johnson is more likely to go for a General Election than to try to actually pursue a deal - that is at .7 to .3
Direct link high res PNG:
brexitdiagram.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/brexit…

Direct link high res PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

Blog with all the files:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

Feedback as ever v welcome!

/ends
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Yesterday's #BrexitDiagram V32 was made before it was reported DUP *will* back the Queen's Speech (I had them as against)

I still think - just - the QS vote will be against now, but this is in V32.1, as is opinion in Labour against a General Election hardening
In comparison to yesterday
-% ↔️ No Deal 31 Oct
2% ↔️ Revoke by 31 Oct
39% ⬆️⬆️ Stalemate
-% ⛔️ Brexit with Deal 31 Oct
43% ⬇️⬇️General Election 2019
13% ↔️ General Election 2020
2% ↔️ #PeoplesVote 2020
I am aware my "Stalemate" outcome needs some more work - it needs to cover how a new Programme Motion could work, and whether a 2nd Referendum might get a majority. But those are tasks for another day!
Read 4 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Running the numbers on the Queen's Speech vote for tomorrow

FOR
287 Tory
20 Independent
10 DUP
1 Labour

ABSTAIN
4 Independent

AGAINST
242 Labour
11 Independent
35 SNP
19 Lib Dem
5 TIG
4 PC
1 Green

Subtract tellers

FOR 316
AGAINST 315
How I calculated

1 Labour FOR is Mann

20 Independents FOR are 20 ex-Tories

4 Indy ABSTAIN are Austin, Field, Hopkins, Woodcock

11 Indy AGAINST are Lloyd, Ellman, Hepburn, Lewis, O'Mara, Shuker, Williamson, Hermon, Bebb, Grieve, Greening
I assume every other Labour MP - even Hoey - is against. Even Barron, Cooper, Fitzpatrick, Flint

Perhaps one of the 4 Indy ex-Labour ones might switch? But likewise might Bebb, Greening or Grieve switch to abstain?
Read 4 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So it's been quite a day

2nd Reading approved
Programme Motion defeated

Which is what V31 of #BrexitDiagram this morning said would likely happen

Here's V31.1, updated in light of today
In comparison to this morning:
-% ↔️ No Deal 31 Oct
2% ↔️ Revoke by 31 Oct
30% ⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️ Stalemate
-% ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Brexit with Deal 31 Oct
64% ↔️ General Election 2019
2% ⬇️ General Election 2020
2% ⬇️ #PeoplesVote 2020
The problem for the Government now is - given more time - they cannot avoid the Queen's Speech issue returning, and they face the danger of a Vote of No Confidence

A General Election might well be a way out
Read 5 tweets

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