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, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Running the numbers on the Queen's Speech vote for tomorrow

FOR
287 Tory
20 Independent
10 DUP
1 Labour

ABSTAIN
4 Independent

AGAINST
242 Labour
11 Independent
35 SNP
19 Lib Dem
5 TIG
4 PC
1 Green

Subtract tellers

FOR 316
AGAINST 315
How I calculated

1 Labour FOR is Mann

20 Independents FOR are 20 ex-Tories

4 Indy ABSTAIN are Austin, Field, Hopkins, Woodcock

11 Indy AGAINST are Lloyd, Ellman, Hepburn, Lewis, O'Mara, Shuker, Williamson, Hermon, Bebb, Grieve, Greening
I assume every other Labour MP - even Hoey - is against. Even Barron, Cooper, Fitzpatrick, Flint

Perhaps one of the 4 Indy ex-Labour ones might switch? But likewise might Bebb, Greening or Grieve switch to abstain?
In short: this will be tight tomorrow, but tight *for* the government now I think.

Wdyt @domwalsh13 @hopisen @samfr @Xander_Fox_?
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
If Labour *really* wanted to take No Deal off the table this is how they could do it.

They’d have to get the Commons to pass what I’ll call for now the Default Exit Path Bill

Here’s how it would work
The Bill would be split into two parts. The first would concern the period pre-Brexit, the second part would cover the Brexit transition period (if we ever get there)
Each part would set out an if-this-then-that logic for that period.

Pre Brexit it would be:
1️⃣ Seek Deal
2️⃣ In absence of a Deal then ask for Art 50 Extension
3️⃣ In absence of Extension, Revoke Article 50
Read 6 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
This line from Labour - no election before No Deal is off the table - sounds superficially right. But how can it actually be done?
The first part is easy. The EU needs to offer an Article 50 Extension.

That ought to be clear today. And then No Deal is off the table until 31 January 2020.
But is that enough for Labour?

If it’s not, it gets messy.
Read 8 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Yesterday's #BrexitDiagram V32 was made before it was reported DUP *will* back the Queen's Speech (I had them as against)

I still think - just - the QS vote will be against now, but this is in V32.1, as is opinion in Labour against a General Election hardening
In comparison to yesterday
-% ↔️ No Deal 31 Oct
2% ↔️ Revoke by 31 Oct
39% ⬆️⬆️ Stalemate
-% ⛔️ Brexit with Deal 31 Oct
43% ⬇️⬇️General Election 2019
13% ↔️ General Election 2020
2% ↔️ #PeoplesVote 2020
I am aware my "Stalemate" outcome needs some more work - it needs to cover how a new Programme Motion could work, and whether a 2nd Referendum might get a majority. But those are tasks for another day!
Read 4 tweets

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KT #Ode2Joy Parker🐬
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Today is possibly .@theresa_may's last day as PM, if .@BorisJohnson can command a majority (which is in some doubt...)

So it's a great opportunity to look back at some of the *highlights* of Mrs May's premiership in memes👇
13 JUL 2016: May was appointed as PM and named her Cabinet shortly thereafter, surprising many by giving 3 of the top #Brexit-related jobs to arch-brexiters Boris Johnson, David Davis & Liam Fox. Sheer folly, or genius in making them own what they'd sold? Sadly, the former😢
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Tomorrow (or rather Sunday when the votes are counted) will mostly demonstrate once again that the country is completely split on Brexit, but the vote on one side will be concentrated, on the other split several ways. Not only that...
These are the Conservative MPs who can't even think of any kind of compromise Brexit, and this can obviously be supplemented by others in Government, though not necessarily the tory leadership candidates who may say one thing and mean another... buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/to…
Then there are the Labour, Lib Dem, Change UK, Green, SNP MPs who are realistically not going to vote for any Brexit unless there's a referendum. Not a majority on their own, but put them together with the no-compromise folk...?
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⚢⚧🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸
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#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.

1/n
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Alex Andreou
@sturdyAlex
Let’s be brutal. #TIG happened because Tory ERG and Labour left both overplayed weak mandates, to shift their parties to their position. They succeeded, but left a football-stadium-sized hole in the middle that begged to be filled. It’s being filled. This is on you. Deal with it.
And I say this as someone from the very left of Labour, incidentally, who for years BEGGED “don’t overreach; find compromise”. Because anyone with half a brain could see his coming.
That’s the lesson, for both left and right. If you set out to “purify” your party, you must accept that the “pure” version will be a smaller version. Physics, innit.
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Brexitshambles
@brexit_sham
#Tory conference on the horizon & the 'no deal' #Brexit vultures circle the carcass. All the usual suspects incl' Littlewood, Singham and @SteveBakerHW for the IEA. @isaby, @Jacob_Rees_Mogg, @DanielJHannan, @patel4witham, @andreajenkyns for @matthew_elliott's BrexitCentral......
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BiPolitico
@PoliticoBi
When Labour has a controversial recent history it's okay because 'that was New Labour', but when it's the Lib Dem's then regardless of the fact they've had two leaders since the coalition years, no they're culpable.

Heaven forbid we have a shared standard of accountability.
Don't even get me started on how the coalition saw the Lib Dem's assume a junior position in coalition to prevent a hung parliament that would have been disastrous to the country. And how since their departure in 2015, things have gotten far worse under exclusive Tory rule.
I'm absolutely tired of Labour deflection. Labour wanted to raise tuition fees, the Conservatives did too. The latter got into power, the Lib Dem's were a coalition partner made to choose between tuition fee reduction (their own policy) and Early Years funding.
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