Good morning ☁️ - lots to cover this week but let's recap some weekend data - we got China industrial profits for September & that showed further contraction (using level contraction then u see stabilization at a low level). But we knew this from deflated PPI in September. 
By details, not much has changed that we don't already know:
a) Food/tobacco/medicine/electricity/waste resources doing fine!!! Meaning essentials in China
b) Extraction of commodities OK too
c) But other sectors stuck in contraction 👇🏻👇🏻
Also got wkly food CPI & up again😬
a) Food/tobacco/medicine/electricity/waste resources doing fine!!! Meaning essentials in China
b) Extraction of commodities OK too
c) But other sectors stuck in contraction 👇🏻👇🏻
Also got wkly food CPI & up again😬
Let's put this another way:
Industrial profits for tradeable sectors doing badly while essentials holding still.
That is reflected in falling PPI & rising CPI in China.
Okay, let's look at what's going on this week globally & Asia (Halloween/Brexit/Fed all at the same time)😱
Industrial profits for tradeable sectors doing badly while essentials holding still.
That is reflected in falling PPI & rising CPI in China.
Okay, let's look at what's going on this week globally & Asia (Halloween/Brexit/Fed all at the same time)😱
In the US, eyes are on the Fed but before then we got house price, consumer confidence, ADP (private sector employment), Q3 GDP advance).
Expectations by markets are below. Btw, markets expect a 25bps cut based on consensus & implied rates).
👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻(89.9% of a cut for Halloween)
Expectations by markets are below. Btw, markets expect a 25bps cut based on consensus & implied rates).
👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻(89.9% of a cut for Halloween)
So that's the USD, let's talk about Asia. We got Korea & Japan IP For September but we already got trade data for Korea for October & that's bad so this is definitely lagging. China PMIs are out for Ocotber & expectations of slowing.
BOJ has a meeting (exps of no change).
BOJ has a meeting (exps of no change).
