1) A few quick thoughts on yesterday's elections in South America. The main trend is anti-incumbency, shown in the defeat of Macri in Argentina, probable 2nd round defeat of the Frente Amplio in Uruguay and some municipal results in Colombia
2) Argentina: Fernández & Fernández win over Macri by 48% to 40.5% much smaller than many (including pollsters) expected. Macri always faced an uphill task after the collapse of the peso in 2018. But:
3) The result highlighted the perversity of the electoral rules: Macri's big loss in the "primaries in August, on a lower turnout, prompted a further 25%+ peso depreciation and surge in inflation. That did for him.
4) Argentina remains split into two hostile camps. Fernández faces a very hard economic adjustment, will have no honeymoon. Kicillof's big victory in Bs Aires province highlights Macri's social-policy failure. Rodríguez L's victory in BA Capital positions him as heir to Macri
5) Uruguay: after 15 years not surprising that Frente Amplio (39%) visibly tired. Lacalle Pou (29%) well placed to win run-off November 24th by uniting centre-right and right
6) In Colombia, a remarkable triumph for Claudia López for mayor of Bogotá (35%). She is openly gay and very courageous, having exposed past links between politicians and paramilitaries. She stands for an essentially moderate and modern centre-left
7) Although local factors were important, the big losers in the municipal elections were the extremes: Álvaro Uribe on the right, and Gustavo Petro on the left. Perhaps the centre isn't dead--at least in Colombia.
