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, 3 tweets, 2 min read
We have *progress* 🎉 🥳

2 Brexit outcomes eliminated from the #BrexitDiagram due to this evening's news that Johnson has written to Tusk confirming the Extension

Diagram now updated to V33.1

(Oh and 5 mins of your time on this would be better than listening to the Commons!)
In comparison to this morning
⛔️% (was negligible) No Deal 31 Oct
⛔️% (was 2%) Revoke by 31 Oct
5% ⬆️ Stalemate
⛔️% (was ⛔️) Brexit with Deal 31 Oct
71% ⬆️General Election 2019
15% ↔️ General Election 2020
9% ↔️ #PeoplesVote 2020
High res PNG:
brexitdiagram.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/brexit…

High res PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

Blog post:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
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More from @jonworth see all

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
A quick thread on voting rights and UK General Elections
Who has been able to vote in UK General Elections until now?
- Brits over 18 y old, resident in UK
- Brits overseas for less than 15 years and who were once on an Electoral Register
- Commonwealth citizens resident in the UK (note: includes 🇲🇹🇨🇾 in 🇪🇺)
- Irish citizens in UK
Who I would *like* to have the voting rights in an ideal world?
- Brits over 16 y old, resident in the UK
- Brits overseas, regardless of how long they have been away
- Anyone with permanent residence in UK (Commonwealth, EU citizens, indeed from anywhere else)
Read 10 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
There was a guy with a thing called #BrexitDiagram

In May he started the third series of these diagrams

Sometimes he wondered if it was time well invested
In version 1 on 22/05/2019 total chance of a General Election was 54%
In version 2.1 on 25/05/2019 total chance of a General Election was 60%
Read 45 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
As today is - once again - going to be about early General Elections, and an argument about 9 or 12 December to hold that election, here's a thread explaining all of it

#Brexit #UKGE19
In short there are 4 reasons for the argument about the date:
1️⃣ Dissolution
2️⃣ Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB)
3️⃣ Students and terms, and turnout
4️⃣ Return of Parliament
I will deal with each in turn
1️⃣ Dissolution

The argument is practical. For an election 9 Dec, dissolution will have to happen Fri 1 Nov (this week):

Can all stages of the Bill pass Commons and Lords by then?

Dissolution Tue 5 Nov means earliest Wed 11 Dec election
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Boris Johnson has written to EU accepting the new #Brexit extension which, he writes, was “imposed” on his government (by Parliament) /1
The PM urges EU to make clear that a further extension after 31 January is not possible. EU highly unlikely to do this. Its main goal is to avoid a no deal #Brexit (whilst safeguarding its red lines in negotiations) /2
In back of EU minds is the possibility (after 3 years of false dawns during the Brexit process) that Brussels may be asked for yet another extension come January .. if a general election proves inconclusive regarding #Brexit etc. It would then grant one to avoid no deal /3
Read 7 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Why on earth the excruciating EU #Brexit extension dance?? Brussels promised to announce ‘end of last week’, then crystallising to ‘Friday’ then Tues or even Weds, now today.. Essentially the delay confusion has been a messy-make-it-up-as-you—go-along political dance /1
Well, at first it looked like all EU leaders were open to the 3 month extension mentioned in PMs extension request letter. But then France dug heels in. Staying with foot analogy: Macron wanted shorter extension to keep MPs feet to the fire.. EU proposed 2 tier extension /2
To please all. Phase one runs out November, in hope that will make gov/MPs concentrate and vote on newly negotiated #Brexit deal. Phase 2, running out 31 Jan would kick in if deal failed to be passed in phase 1. This was in place Thursday BUT then PM started push for elex /3
Read 7 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Germany's Die Welt newspaper sums up EU thoughts on #Brexit this morning with the headline: "The only thing that is clear is that Brexit is not happening on 31 October" welt.de/politik/auslan… /1
EU leaders must now agree on whether to grant the UK another Brexit extension and if so: how long for. Don't forget every country has a veto on this. But after speaking extensively to EU diplomats and politicians, the consensus EU-side seems to be to say yes /2
The EU's decision is expected by the end of the week. You can expect a lot of EU grumbling beforehand. France's Europe Minister was unsurprisingly (France has settled into role of "Brexit Bad Cop") one of first to speak on the record last night. She noted that.. /3
Read 12 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU views PMs letter accompanying his formal #Brexit extension request - saying that he doesn’t actually want an extension- as a gimmick aimed at a domestic audience. As far as EU law is concerned: a formal request from the UK prime minister, is a formal request full stop /1
EU leaders not rushing to make decisions. Instead they watch events in Westminster carefully. If their newly negotiated #Brexit deal is approved by the majority of MPs - as the PM promised them it would be - then possibly no extension will be needed OR /2
Only a short one maybe to allow for necessary legislation to be completed. If this is the case, EU leaders won’t think twice about granting this short extension. They may even approve it by writing rather than on person at an emergency #Brexit summit. Spoiler alert../3
Read 12 tweets
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⚢🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸🏳️‍⚧️
@SakuraNoSeirei
Good morning and welcome to yet another #Brexit thread

Have just woken up this morning to see that the Government in the Lords backed down at 01:30 and agreed to give the #BennBill time to go through all stages in the Lords

So I'm going to grab a coffee and try to find...

1/n
the business for today for both Houses

2/n
And indeed, today's the day that the Lords starts on the #BennBill

No firm commitment on timing just yet but I will hopefully be here to cover it live

3/n
lordsbusiness.parliament.uk
Read 125 tweets
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Louise Mensch
@LouiseMensch
#Brexit supporters like me hold @realDonaldTrump in profound contempt. We know he’s a liar. He’s offered the U.K. *zero* special trade deals. He’s done nothing but insult the Queen.

If ever there was an argument for pressing pause and taking Tusk’s long extension, ERG, its this.
With a year, we can negotiate a better version of EFTA. Freedom of movement *without a job* can be eliminated. Common Market 2 solves many problems. #DelayBrexit
By the way, @realDonaldTrump, threatening our EU friends and allies like @campaignforleo and Ireland is totally unacceptable. It’s not what #Brexit supporters want or stand for. The ERG will find it as ugly as Remain do. Nobody believes you will do anything for the U.K.
Read 3 tweets

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