Thread by @jonworth

There was a guy with a thing called #BrexitDiagram

In May he started the third series of these diagrams

Sometimes he wondered if it was time well invested

In version 1 on 22/05/2019 total chance of a General Election was 54%

In version 2.1 on 25/05/2019 total chance of a General Election was 60%

In version 2.2 on 27/05/2019 total chance of a General Election was 67%

In version 3 on 27/05/2019 total chance of a General Election was 71%

In version 4 on 09/06/2019 total chance of a General Election was 70%

In version 5 on 13/06/2019 total chance of a General Election was 71%

In version 6 on 25/06/2019 total chance of a General Election was 61%

In version 7.1 on 11/07/2019 total chance of a General Election was 66%

In version 8 on 23/07/2019 total chance of a General Election was 67%

In version 9 on 26/07/2019 total chance of a General Election was 76%

In version 10 on 20/08/2019 total chance of a General Election was 53%

(this was the lowest of all)

In version 11 on 28/08/2019 total chance of a General Election was 66%

In version 12.1 on 28/08/2019 total chance of a General Election was 68%

In version 13 on 29/08/2019 total chance of a General Election was 68%

In version 14 on 04/09/2019 total chance of a General Election was 85%

In version 15 on 04/09/2019 total chance of a General Election was 85%

(from here on the diagrams were redesigned to have arrow width determined by overall probability)

In version 16 on 06/09/2019 total chance of a General Election was 89%

In version 17 on 08/09/2019 total chance of a General Election was 81%

In version 18 on 10/09/2019 total chance of a General Election was 72%

In version 19 on 13/09/2019 total chance of a General Election was 67%

In version 20 on 19/09/2019 total chance of a General Election was 84%

In version 21 on 19/09/2019 total chance of a General Election was 86%

In version 22.1 on 24/09/2019 total chance of a General Election was 88%

In version 23 on 25/09/2019 total chance of a General Election was 87%

(thread might break here - limit on how many tweets are possible in a thread!)

In version 24.1 on 30/09/2019 total chance of a General Election was 84%

In version 24.2 on 01/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 73%

In version 25 on 01/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 72%

In version 26.1 on 03/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 58%

In version 26.2 on 03/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 60%

In version 27.1 on 10/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 60%

In version 28 on 10/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 63%

In version 29 on 17/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 55%

In version 30 on 19/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 60%

In version 31 on 22/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 67%

In version 31.1 on 22/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 66%

In version 32 on 23/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 60%

In version 32.1 on 24/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 57%

In version 33 on 28/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 85%

In version 33.1 on 28/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 86%

In version 33.2 on 28/10/2019 total chance of a General Election was 84%

If you would prefer all of that in a graph, here you go.

Versions 1-17 were banking on a General Election in mid-October.

When this became impossible other options - with a Deal, by end of 2019, and in 2020 came into play - as shown here.

The headlines however are these:

At NO POINT was total chance of a General Election lower than 50% (lowest was 53% on 20/08/2019)

At NO POINT was a 2019 General Election (Oct, or 2019) not the single most likely outcome (lowest 43% on 03/10/2019)

(Also the earlier second series of #BrexitDiagram - from back in the spring - had it odds-on that Article 50 would be extended. And that is what happened.
jonworth.eu/brexit-where-n…)

As ever all the PNG image files, scaleable PDFs, draw(dot)io XML, and ODS files of ALL the workings for ALL of this third series are on my blog
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

Thanks to all who have helped with these!

Now I better get working on Series 4 of #BrexitDiagram 😜

/ends