I recently returned from Paris. Here is my take on French views of the EU (mostly not about Brexit) - a thread. @CER_EU /1
Macron wants to get Brexit done asap. If and when it comes to negotiating a trade agreement, France will be very tough: unless UK agrees to automatic aligning with EU rules on social/envt/state aid/some tax, UK will not get 'Canada' but a much less good deal, with tariffs. /2
This is because France fears a super-competitive 'Singapore-on-Thames'. But on security, France will favour a deep and special partnership post-Brexit, not just bilaterally but between UK and EU. The official EU position is that no 3rd country can be 'plugged in' closely... /3
..to EU security structures, but I was told this line will change once Brexit happens. The UK will be offered bespoke arrangements that others are not offered. Even, possibly, on Galileo and the European Defence Fund - from which France has fought hitherto to exclude UK. /4
Macron has become, arguably, the most influential figure in the EU, eg in deciding who gets which job. Merkel is weaker & he has ideas & energy. But his unilateral style is causing resentment in other capitals, eg his recent vetoing of N Macedonia opening membership talks. /5
The French indicate that they will not block W Balkans accessions for ever, but want a new process agreed on enlargement. Countries should become partial members, in certain EU policies, before they graduate to full membership with voting rights. /6
Early this year FRA & GER economy ministers called for a radical overhaul of EU competition policy, to encourage 'European champions': Commission shd look at global not EU market in deciding which mergers to allow, & European Council should be able to veto Comm decisions. /7
Now FRA has lowered its ambitions; no more talk of EU chiefs over-ruling the Comm, but it thinks new team in BXL will follow FRA ideas on global mkts being relevant. FRA happy that new single mkt commissioner & director-general for competition pol will be French. /8
Franco-German relations are strained. France thinks EU & eurozone especially need radical reform. Germany thinks they are OK the way they are. French frustrated with Germany's slow-moving coalition govt that cannot easily take decisions. Germany annoyed with the unilateralism. /9
GER did agree to eurozone budget but ensured it is tiny & cannot be used for stabilisation. FRA believes in long term that eurozone can't be healthy sans a central stabilisation function. In short run its priorities for eurozone are a better bank resolution regime..../10
...a capital mkts union & more use of fiscal policy by national govts like GER (to substitute for lack of fiscal pol at EU level). Frency think Draghi saved euro with monetary pol & expect Lagarde to do same with fiscal pol - and to make ECB inflation target less deflationary./11
One bone of contention between Paris and Berlin appears resolved. SPD refused to agree to joint Franco-German rules on arms exports, thereby blocking joint armaments programmes. Now new rules have been agreed, but not publicised. /12
FRA wants to use the big EU budget negotiation - the seven-year 'MFF' - to put pressure on members that abuse the rule of law (like Poland, Hungary). It wants the provision of EU funds to be conditional on respect for rule of law. It thinks a majority of member-states agree. /13
To conclude, one reason why FRA is so influential is that Macron has so many more ideas than other EU leaders. But he would be even more influential if he could develop the patience required to build coalitions. /ENDS
