It now seems likely that BJ can find a majority in Parliament for his Brexit plan, even though amendments to the WAB may give him delays and problems. But attention will inevitably shift to the future relationship. A short thread. @CER_EU /1
Most people in UK have no idea how hard a Brexit BJ is trying to achieve. His Canada-style FTA version, like what @theresa_may proposed, would give services firms little access to the single market. But unlike her plan it would also exclude manufacturers from single market. /2
By rejecting the idea of aligning with EU rules on goods, BJ will ensure that EU offers only a thin FTA. EU says the threat of Singapore-on-Thames means it wdn't offer zero tariffs. In any case checks for customs and single mkt rules on borders would mean much friction. /3
That is really bad for car, pharma, chemicals, aerospace, food-processing & any industry that requires integrated supply chains. So what is best model of Brexit that UK could aim for? /4
Economically, Norway offers best model - UK stays in single market. But that could probably not work politically: UK would be a rule-taker for goods and services. IMHO the best possible deal for UK economy that cd just work for EU & UK politically is 'Jersey model'. /5
As my colleagues @SamuelMarcLowe & @JohnSpringford wrote in Jan 2018 (cer.eu/publications/a…) this means UK staying in EU customs union & single market for goods, but going its own way for services. /6
May's 'Chequers Plan' inched towards this, offering to align with EU rules on goods. But EU said no, because customs provisions were v complex and in its view unworkable; & because plan failed to reassure EU with 'level playing field' provisions to stop UK becoming Singapore. /7
Those objections can be met via UK offering to stay in customs union (I believe EU would grant a consultation mechanism on trade policy), & reassurances on following relevant EU rules on social/envt/consumer/tax/state aid policies. /8
OK, EU also disliked Chequers for cherry-picking single mkt (in for goods but not services, like CH, yet Swiss take free movement of labour). But I was told at the time by EU officials that if UK had not messed up its customs and LPF proposals that it would have been hard to.../9
..reject Chequers out of hand. Anyway a responsible UK govt would ask for something like the Jersey model, which would at least help manufacturing, which accounts for half of UK exports. /10
The other thing the UK should focus on, under-discussed, is security co-op post-Brexit. UK has much to offer in policing, counter-terrorism, defence & foreign policy. Commission has taken hard line that 3rd countries cannot be plugged in closely, lest precedents are created. /11
That line is understandable but should shift, as many member-states recognise. Where EU law applies, UK must of course accept ECJ role & EU rules on data. But EU must be ready to build bespoke structures that allow UK to contribute the maximum possible to European security. ENDS
