A short thread from my recent trip to Vienna. Kurz's Christian Democrats will probably succeed in forming a coalition with the Greens. There is much regret about Brexit - Austrians counted on UK to push for free trade and fight red tape & French etatisme. /1 @CER_EU
Austrians fear that a combination of Brexit & a chronically weak German govt are leaving a space that Macron is filling. The huge hostility of senior figures in Vienna to Macron is striking. They regard his 'pro-EU' ideas as covers for the promotion of French interests or.... /2
...as domestically driven by Macron's fear of Le Pen. Austrians particularly dislike France's veto on accession talks with N Macedonia - Austria is very pro EU enlargement into its historic sphere of influence (but not to Turkey). /3
Austria also lines up with Germany & the Dutch-led 'Hanseatics' in opposing French ideas on eurozone reform, including a big eurozone budget and EU-wide fiscal policy. What about Macron's recent initiative to bring Russia in from the cold? /4
One might have expected Austria to support that, given its desire for warmer commercial & political relations with Russia. But no. Macron's initiative is bilateral, so Austria will oppose it until Macron decides to work through the EU. /5
On the Ukraine conflict, Austria favours the 'Steinmeier formula' whereby the EU would remove sanctions against Russia one by one, as Moscow complied with the various parts of the Minsk agreement, one by one. /6
I was in town at the same time as Belarus's Lukashenko, on his 1st state visit. Austria is keen to engage with Belarus, to draw it closer to the West. It is also a big investor in the country. The fact that Austria doesn't like lecturing others on human rights helps this rel. END
