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, 5 tweets, 4 min read
It's been a hard week for CA w/ major wildfires (#GettyFire, #KincaidFire) affecting the state.

Synoptic weather context is key: Fires were aided by repeated mountain & gap winds via ridge building over the Great Basin. This ridge building enhances the pressure gradient over CA.
The synoptic weather sets the stage, but the mountain interaction enhances the winds further.

Let's illustrate the mesoscale details w/ a cross-section across the coastal CA mountain ranges. Hurricane force (#SantaAna) winds form as cold easterly flow tries to cross the barrier.
The record-breaking cold pool intensity associated w/ a 1045-hPa ridge is one reason why this last mountain wind event for southern California may be the worst.

Inland, 850-hPa temps are at record lows, but adiabatic compression modifies the air to near climo on the coast.
Lamen translation: All signs point to an extremely critical fire weather situation across CA the next 24-36 hours.

Hurricane force mountain induced winds + extremely dry air are a recipe for extreme fire behavior.

Sources for this mini thread:

1) @AliciaMBentley maps: atmos.albany.edu/student/abentl…

2) @Weathernerds page which lets you make custom cross-sections: weathernerds.org/models/

3) @burgwx’s 850-hPa temp %iles: atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/…

4) @NWSSPC fire wx page: spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_…
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Philippe Papin
@pppapin
Here is the sequel to my steering flow animated explanations. I'm covering 2 periods.

1st period is when #Dorian is expected to stall.

3 Features Cancel out:
1) Ridge over the NATL
2) Ridge over the Midwest
3) Trough that creates a weakness between the two ridges.
So naturally the next question is, what causes the #Dorian to start moving again?

Essentially one ridge becomes stronger (NATL ridge), while the other one weakens (Midwest US), with progressive troughs making sure the weakness stays open. Breakdown below⬇️
So in retrospect, it's not the trough picking up the storm, but rather the transient troughs provide a weakness that then gives #Dorian a path to then be directed around the clockwise circulation of the NATL ridge.
Read 4 tweets
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Philippe Papin
@pppapin
Okay so while all attention is on #Dorian, let's do a quick tour of the rest of the NATL tropics currently, because there are some other systems to talk about.

There is a weak llvl circ. n/ Cuba W of Dorian. It should move into the GoM where it has a chance to organize further.
Next up is an African Easterly Wave that just emerged off the coast. The model guidance has been somewhat optimistic on this wave developing over the next 5-7 days, so worth keeping an eye on it. Aside from the Cape Verde islands, no threat to land.
Let's continue. There is yet another wave out in the middle of the NATL basin. Its battling some fairly strong westerly shear currently, but some models suggest it will get into a more favorable environment as it moves off to the northwest. #Bermuda should keep an eye on it.
Read 5 tweets
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Philippe Papin
@pppapin
1/9: Over the last 24 hours there have been large eastward shifts in #Dorian's track. It may now just clip #PuertoRico to the east! How?

Let's start with Dorian's vertical structure. One critical change is how vertically coherent Dorian's vortex has become, as seen below.
2/9: Here is another way to view it, this time from a lat-lon map. Over the last four GFS model cycles, the separation between the low & mid level centers of #Dorian decreases until they are on top of each other.

Correspondingly the low-level vortex migrates to the northeast.
3/9: Since #Dorian's vortex is more vertically stacked, it feels a deeper steering layer, moving it more north vs. the low-level flow.

Yesterday's 06z GFS run had a shallow vortex, & its steering was impacted by the low-level Caribbean trade winds (925-700-hPa) into #Hispaniola.
Read 10 tweets

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Khanoisseur 🐶🤦🏻‍♂️🌎
@Khanoisseur
Wildfires have burned these parts of California for thousands of years; they’re more intense and frequent now in large part due to explosive population growth, home building in recent decades. Now imagine the air quality if more manufacturing happened in California…
2. Sonoma County, where #KincaidFire is burning, also diverts millions of gallons of water to vineyards, even during droughts. It takes 800 gallons of water to produce one gallon of wine. Exporting a gallon of CA wine is like exporting 800 gallons of CA 💦
3. Two fires 🔥 burning in the same general landscape of California, under similar extreme winds, 50 years apart, caused two different outcomes: the one 50 years ago burned only 29 structures vs 7000 (and killing 40+) 50 years later. Why the difference?

Population growth.
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The Defeat Of Brexit
@WTSecretary
The outline of the Brexiteers strategy is at least fairly clear.

I believe Remainers should take note of it, because it gives important clues about how to defeat it.

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One vital column of Brexiteer political strategy is to lull the electorate, while probing, testing and trying to extend (through manipulation), the boundaries of acceptable bad governance. You can choose from the many examples of this. It’s a pattern.
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Shay Castle
@shayshinecastle
OK, we're moving to the Transportation Master Plan update. Here's the staff presentation: www-static.bouldercolorado.gov/docs/5A_CC_TMP…
First TMP was adopted in 1989
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@TXTrumpette89
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True Republics
@TrueRepublics
“Operation Torch California is a very real ongoing black operation being conducted by the U.S. Intelligence Community in collusion with Operation Gladio. These false flag terrorist attacks are first &... 
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bit.ly/2S4Euu0
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bit.ly/2BwuaF7
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Hurricane Watcher
@GodlessNZ
(1) The loss by fire of Brazil's National Museum brought to mind the two Getty Center sites in Los Angeles, and other priceless treasure houses around the world.

Politics is central to this issue.

Photo: People gathering around the burnt out museum today in a kind of embrace.
(2) People are constantly telling me that politics doesn't matter, that it's pointless, that they don't need to form a view and act on it.

What a cop out.
(3) You are, of course, free to ignore politics as much as you wish. That's WHY millions have fought and died for the sake of liberty and freedom.

But for most people, if you ignore local, state, national, or international politics, then you're not being part of the solution.
Read 42 tweets

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