What's underdiscussed at the moment is the loss of the "incumbent effect" for so many Tory MPs. Now, every election cycle we see MPs standing down. But this one is exceptional because a lot of well-known names are standing down on the Remain wing of the party.
Presumably, they are going to be replaced by candidates who will take a pledge to follow Boris Johnson over the no deal cliff if that's what it takes. So if we're talking about a Remain constituency, that could have a real impact.
After all, in such constituencies, there will be not one but four changes since 2017:
1. Brexit is clearer and harder than in 2017. Tories have swung towards the harder end of the Brexit spectrum and are actively flirting with no deal.
2. A long-standing MP is quitting.
1. Brexit is clearer and harder than in 2017. Tories have swung towards the harder end of the Brexit spectrum and are actively flirting with no deal.
2. A long-standing MP is quitting.
3. The LibDems offer a straightforward "revoke and Remain" option, not on display in 2017.
4. The Brexit Party may well stand and strip off some of the Leave vote.
All these changes suggest they should be much more "winnable" than if their MPs had toughed it out another cycle.
4. The Brexit Party may well stand and strip off some of the Leave vote.
All these changes suggest they should be much more "winnable" than if their MPs had toughed it out another cycle.
Because had they run again, constituents might have rolled the dice on them one more time, assuming that despite lip service to Boris Johnson they would continue to oppose Brexit excesses.
But if they stand down it's a clean slate, and voters will evaluate each candidate afresh.
But if they stand down it's a clean slate, and voters will evaluate each candidate afresh.
