Let's learn from history.
Back in 1989/90, the Community Charge was introduced by Margaret Thatcher in Scotland and then England and Wales. You probably remember it as the Poll Tax. Despite it being hugely unpopular, Maggie pressed ahead with the policy.
Back in 1989/90, the Community Charge was introduced by Margaret Thatcher in Scotland and then England and Wales. You probably remember it as the Poll Tax. Despite it being hugely unpopular, Maggie pressed ahead with the policy.
Maggie's argument was that the people had voted for the policy - after all, it had been in the Tory manifesto that had given her another landslide - so she had to deliver it and they could not change their minds.
There were protests and some of them were pretty violent. Maggie said that there was no way that she would back down from the policy. Meanwhile, Tory MPs were hearing the upset from ordinary voters in their constituencies.
They knew just how catastrophic the poll tax would be, in particular, to the middle class voters who they had relied on to get elected. At last, that section of the electorate was turning.
They knew they had defended the poll tax but realised the only hope they had, in the face of a tidal wave, was to ditch it. Maggie was immoveable. She would not ditch the policy.
Faced with the possibility of losing their seats due to an massively destructive policy, they started to think the unthinkable - that Maggie would have to go.
And they were brutal about it.
And they were brutal about it.
Defenders of the policy were few and far between as all the rats jumped the good ship Maggie. Those who were the loudest supporters ultimately disappeared without trace.
So it will be with @theresa_may. Many Tory MPs have been hearing the change in mood over Brexit - although some are in denial over it. I've heard from constituency agents who are worried. They know how this pans out. And it is not pretty.
People like @sajidjavid and @Jacob_Rees_Mogg who try to deny the democratic right to revise and change your opinion won't do well when May goes. Their cards will be marked.
The policy of #Brexit will be dropped and either the Tories will find someone decent and moderate to get them through an election which they will scrape or they will lose. Either way, this period of conservatism is drawing to a close. 20 years of Labour beckons.
The only real ponderable is when it happens. The poll tax was brought in before they ditched it - leading to massive unnecessary costs. If Brexit happens, the costs will be huge & the readmission price will be Schengen, the euro, no veto and the rest.
However, if #Tory MPs #StopBrexit before it happens, not only will the country not waste as much money, some of them might even keep their seats.
Only time will tell but, make no mistake, this is @theresa_may's poll tax and she is now toast. Let's see who goes down with her.
Only time will tell but, make no mistake, this is @theresa_may's poll tax and she is now toast. Let's see who goes down with her.
