So i've crunched the numbers on the #UniteToRemain agreement.
What does it mean for Remain?
I've divided the unheld constituencies into 3 groups: probable, possible & unlikely gains
First to the LibDems - how much will it really help?
A thread....
What does it mean for Remain?
I've divided the unheld constituencies into 3 groups: probable, possible & unlikely gains
First to the LibDems - how much will it really help?
A thread....
2/
Of the 43 constituencies LibDems given a free run at, the pact should ensure retention at present held ones but also add 3 new ones:
Cheltenham
Richmond Park
Cheadle
With 15 possible gains such as Wells, Southport, North Cornwall.
At first this sounds quite small - it isnt.
Of the 43 constituencies LibDems given a free run at, the pact should ensure retention at present held ones but also add 3 new ones:
Cheltenham
Richmond Park
Cheadle
With 15 possible gains such as Wells, Southport, North Cornwall.
At first this sounds quite small - it isnt.
3/
This is a "base scenario".
IOW it doesnt include Labour voters increasing tactical voting or potential splitting of the Leave vote due to Brexit party candidates.
It also cleverly in some cases helps Labour remainers such as Ben Bradshaw in Exeter by reducing remain options.
This is a "base scenario".
IOW it doesnt include Labour voters increasing tactical voting or potential splitting of the Leave vote due to Brexit party candidates.
It also cleverly in some cases helps Labour remainers such as Ben Bradshaw in Exeter by reducing remain options.
4/
Whats super interesting about the LibDems is how much they've sacrificed in Wales to go after staunch southern leafy suburban remain voting Conservative seats.
Its a gamble that I can only conclude is based on some amazing secret polling results in specific southern areas.
Whats super interesting about the LibDems is how much they've sacrificed in Wales to go after staunch southern leafy suburban remain voting Conservative seats.
Its a gamble that I can only conclude is based on some amazing secret polling results in specific southern areas.
5/
Targetting Dominc Raab in Esher or the admittedly unique Finchley & Golders Green looks on past results like a long shot...but if they pull these off will surely end Johnson's govt.
Labour should be relieved. LibDems are focussing their strategy almost purely on the Tories.
Targetting Dominc Raab in Esher or the admittedly unique Finchley & Golders Green looks on past results like a long shot...but if they pull these off will surely end Johnson's govt.
Labour should be relieved. LibDems are focussing their strategy almost purely on the Tories.
6/
The biggest winners are Plaid Cymru who were looking v vulnerable with 2 of their 4 seats having tiny vulnerable majorities.
The agreement should protect these & even possibly win a 5th seat - Ynys Môn.
In return its unlikely LibDems or Greens will gain further Welsh seats.
The biggest winners are Plaid Cymru who were looking v vulnerable with 2 of their 4 seats having tiny vulnerable majorities.
The agreement should protect these & even possibly win a 5th seat - Ynys Môn.
In return its unlikely LibDems or Greens will gain further Welsh seats.
7/
Now to the Greens.
Sorry - but only possible gain I can see is Isle of Wight - & thats still a long shot.
However the LibDems have offered the chance for Greens to build up places like Bristol West as powerbases for the future.
It should tho ensure they retain Brighton Pav.
Now to the Greens.
Sorry - but only possible gain I can see is Isle of Wight - & thats still a long shot.
However the LibDems have offered the chance for Greens to build up places like Bristol West as powerbases for the future.
It should tho ensure they retain Brighton Pav.
8/
So what will the pact mean?
It wont deliver remain victory by itself but shld easily add 4-5 new seats & help retain current ones.
Real story tho is whats going on behind public announcements.
Say it quietly..it actually helps some Labour remain MPs by reducing competion.
So what will the pact mean?
It wont deliver remain victory by itself but shld easily add 4-5 new seats & help retain current ones.
Real story tho is whats going on behind public announcements.
Say it quietly..it actually helps some Labour remain MPs by reducing competion.
9/
To Exeter.
Ben Bradshaw is a v strong Remain Labour MP. LibDems had every right to be the #UniteToRemain candidate in a traditional SW region where they're 3rd party but cleverly gave the Greens free run.
Its almost like Labour Remain MPs are being included in the strategy..
To Exeter.
Ben Bradshaw is a v strong Remain Labour MP. LibDems had every right to be the #UniteToRemain candidate in a traditional SW region where they're 3rd party but cleverly gave the Greens free run.
Its almost like Labour Remain MPs are being included in the strategy..
10/
Nobody is ever going to admit this publicly but the #UniteToRemain pact clearly has been envisaged to maximise a remain backlash against liberal southern Tory seats while reducing remain competion to specific Remain Labour MPs.
But there's one thing left unanswered.....
Nobody is ever going to admit this publicly but the #UniteToRemain pact clearly has been envisaged to maximise a remain backlash against liberal southern Tory seats while reducing remain competion to specific Remain Labour MPs.
But there's one thing left unanswered.....
11/
By my maths it would only take another 60 seats to be divided up btwn Remainer Labour MPs & LibDems to ensure a Johnson govt cannot get a majority.
It wouldnt even need a national pact.
If the Tories win it will remain one of the great "what ifs" of British politics.
/ends
By my maths it would only take another 60 seats to be divided up btwn Remainer Labour MPs & LibDems to ensure a Johnson govt cannot get a majority.
It wouldnt even need a national pact.
If the Tories win it will remain one of the great "what ifs" of British politics.
/ends
