A few thoughts based on chats & @EmmanuelMacron interview @PedderSophie. Macron is determined to resist pressure to abandon his opposition to EU entry talks for Albania & North Macedonia – but he is ready to look at other ways of making them feel part of the ‘European family’ 1/
The next round in the battle – pitting France, the Netherlands & Denmark versus the rest – is expected at an EU-Balkans summit in Zagreb next Spring 2/
Senior French officials say @EmmanuelMacron is ready to look at ways of allowing Albania and North Macedonia to take part in ‘some EU policies’ before talks on their possible EU membership open at some unspecified date 3/
But Macron won't soften his view, defended in bad-tempered late-night talks at October Council, that EU should refuse endless talks with prospective new members until: 1) 27 have reformed procedures for enlargement; 2) they've made progress on reforming their own institutions 4/
Macron is accused by Albania of playing domestic politics by resisting EU enlargement. (Albania is majority muslim country & Macron is in midst of messy quarrel at home on tightening immigration laws & defending France’s ‘secular’ state against alleged attack from radical islam)
Other EU leaders say that @EmmanuelMacron is making a ‘historic mistake’ by keeping the two Balkan nations waiting. Both had been promised early talks on membership (probably lasting for ten years) if they made political and economic reforms 6/
N. Macedonia had even agreed to change its name (dropping its claim to be called ‘Macedonia’) on understanding this would smoothe its path to full EU status. If their westward-looking ambitions are frustrated, other capitals argue, they will turn towards China, Russia & Turkey 7/
French officials say that, au contraire, Macron is being doubly consistent - defending his own often expressed views on flabbiness of EU decision-making but also a long-standing French view that ‘broadening’ of EU must go in step with ‘deepening’ of the EU's institutions 8/
After October Council, Macron offered a parallel with the endless quarrels which result from the co-ownership of apartment buildings in France. He said the EU was like a ‘condominium’ which ‘no one could leave’ (a glance at the UK), where the ‘lights needed to be repaired’ 9/
but ‘members refused to cough up more than 1%’ to the common budget (a glance at Germany) and yet they were always ‘ready to invite new friends to move in’ 10/
Macron objects to the present EU admission systems which gives some benefits to prospective members while talks drag on endlessly. (Turkish accession negotiations began in 1987 but have been frozen for two decades; talks with Montenegro & Serbia are expected to end by 2025) 11/
As citizens of a would-be prospective member, Albanians can travel visa-free to France. As a result, France complains, Albanians have become second largest group of asylum-seekers in France. This is a situation, Macron says, which is ‘impossible to explain to ordinary people’ 12/
Think France wants to see more progress on its agenda for EU/ Eurozone reform to streamline decision-making before new applicants are allowed in. His comments on EU fiscal rules/3% Stability & Growth Pact deficit ceiling @PedderSophie in @TheEconomist very noteworthy indeed 13/
Paris also wants EU membership application system to be reformed radically. Here Macron’s objectives are EVEN firmer. He wants would-be members to prove themselves by gradually adopting EU policies and legal and political standards before they achieve full EU status 14/
He also wants the system to be ‘reversible’ – in other words countries which fail to meet their commitments should lose ground, not remain in a permanent limbo like Turkey 15/
Ultimately, think Macron is likely to allow some kind of concession to the ‘Balkans Two’ at Zagreb summit next spring. They may be invited to take part in some EU policies and have some trade access to EU market before they even start formal membership talks 16/
Conclusion: Macron has some good arguments about need for EU reform. But he is also playing to a domestic agenda. If North Macedonia alone had been up for applicant membership status, he might have been more flexible. HOWEVER 17/
Allowing a poor, majority muslim country like Albania to become a ‘future EU member’ two & half years before he faces re-election battle against Marine Le Pen was another question entirely. Imp consideration for him, given who he'll prob be facing in 2022 - see latest piece. ENDS 
