1/ You can criticize Warren for her wonky single payer transition plan -- and I think her plans tend to be overly detailed and too clever by half -- but if you actually believe M4A is passable in the first 2 years of a Dem presidency you need to smoke less weed, do more math.
2/ These are folks who think a million people in the street will "force the powers that be" to pass M4A. No, that's not how it works. 1st, there won't be 1m in the street. Second, lawmakers only feel pressure when THEIR constituents are, and most moderate Dems' voters won't be...
3/ There is no magic to a Dem prez win. The Senate will either remain in GOP hands or barely Dem, but with several centrists. Same in House btw. Some of y'all actually seem to think Jacobin and left Twitter is where most Americans are. It'd be nice, but its a fantasy...
4/ I have heard no one put forth a coherent theory of change as to how M4A gets passed in the short run. Just a bunch of bullshit about "we can't get the change we don't envision first!" Whatever, rainbow...Or else just attacks on anyone who even asks for a theory of change...
5/ As in, "skepticism shows you're a private insurance shill and evil capitalist, who doesn't care if people die.." Mmm- k. Actually, w/o a transition plan, millions in states that didn't expand Medicaid will continue to suffer & thousands die while y'all plan the revolution...
6/ A transition plan that offered Medicare buy-in would save lives NOW, save people money NOW, and BUILD support for single payer by demonstrating the superiority of a public option vs private care, even in states w/o such support currently..
7/ But some folks think it is more moral to let those folks continue to suffer, go broke or die, all because "we're on the brink of crushing the insurance industry forever." No we're not. These people live in a silo where everyone they hang out with and speak to is like them...
8/ Some people need to get out more. There is no mass movement for single payer at this moment. And what movement there is, is not mobilized broadly enough yet to make a difference to lawmakers. And polls showing abstract support for single payer mean nothing...
9/ Polls flip around based on how Q is worded. Once you add concerns re costs or wait times, etc (even if those concerns are bullshit), support drops. The right WOULD trot out those scare lines, so u can't assume constant support. Polls don't gauge real world political battles...
10/ Additionally, polls that show single payer support are national aggregate polls, which mean nothing in terms of either electoral college or state majorities (key for Senate support) or congressional districts (key to House)...
11/ It's stunning how naive some folks can be, ultimately boiling everything down to platitudes and "dream big" rhetoric and thinking the entire country is like AOC's district, or a Nation cruise, or Chapo's audience...Were that true, this shit would have been done long ago...
12/ And no, this is not to suggest we shouldn't fight for single payer. We should. But u build support by demonstrating feasibility, and the buy in can help do that. Sadly, many come from the school of thought that says "reformism" is tantamount to anesthesia. But it needn't be..
13/ Done properly and with the proper narrative strategy, it can serve as adrenaline. This whole "well, when things get REALLY bad, they'll all come our way," thinking--which animates far too many, needs to go. One must have a short term and long term goal. Lives are at stake...
