Thread by @BzhClair

Politically incorrect poll on French nukes :
So nuclear generation has fallen a bit between "good years" 2012-2015 and 2016-2019
In what quarter has the output fallen the most 4 years on 4 years ?

Easy ? A harder one to follow

OK, good participation, now the tougher one, which is the opposite question, in what quarter did nuclear output in France drop the least between 2012-2015 and 2016-2019 ?
Lowest drop IN PERCENTAGE terms.

Thanks a lot for taking part, as I expected, for those familiar with "the issue" the first question was easier, the second not so much, second question result showed proportion of correct result less than random. Even though I have educated some who improved the average.

Biggest decrease of load factor of French nukes 4 year on 4 year was in Q4 (I have extended 5 weeks of Q4 19 with my best guess) -10.4%
Smallest drop Q2, -1,9% only !!!!

Installed capacity 63,2 GW

I let you think about those numbers, and will explain what it also tells you about the weather and why as @Jed_Trott had hinted from Philly that good hydro can be pretty bad for nukes (don't trust the newspapers on that).
Now think about 2011 and 2019, will give you other numbers

@Jed_Trott So, very low load factor this year again (69%), Spain is close to 90% in general. Yes French nukes are three times more idle than the Spanish ones.
But what is more troubling is that there is a reverse flexibility at work, not an increase as was expected.

Q2 should be the most affected by a nuke decline if renewables were at play as the main cause. This is the sunniest part with the lowest demand?
One of the causes is hydro : 2019 Q1-2-3 were very dry, so in those low demand months WITHOUT major cooling issues, the drought helped

the nukes by making room. In general a dry year helps nukes !!!! The nuke cooling issues in Q3 week-ends due to droughts are low in comparison with competition, strong hydro could have.

As an example, look at two years 2011 and 19, both very dry early in the year (then very wet, starting quite a bit earlier in 11 around July, October for 19).
Well in Q2, there used to be more nuclear output than now in Q4.

There are plenty of other items around low nuclear

output in France, but the bad news is that is has the least declined when it was the least needed (Q2), and I guess from 2020 onward will have to decline there as repeated additions of renewables, lower demand, normal hydro ?? should create room issues.