Thread by @TheLastRefuge2

Pelosi's in a bind. If she wants a House vote for a hand-off to Nadler, she's got to take whip count in first week of Dec and push vote quick (only 8 days). But Nadler phase can't/won't start til Jan 2020. And she's got Judicial branch issues. 👇

theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/11/21/two…

The House is now in recess for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Members return on December 3rd and recesses again for Christmas break on December 12th. That is the window for Pelosi to cram in all of the House needs; eight days.

On December 9th the IG report on FISA abuse and DOJ/FBI corruption will be released.

On December 11th Michael Horowitz will testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

That shortens Pelosi's window if she wants the narrative.

The mentioned 👇mid-December House Impeachment Vote is not a vote to impeach President Trump. It is a vote at the end of their “inquiry”; and a vote to authorize the House Judiciary Committee to begin their “official” impeachment hearings.

Remember, the House Dems punted the budget with a short term CR so that has to get done. We were hopeful Pelosi would put the USMCA ratification up for a vote; however, that appears to be off the table until 2020. So budget and impeachment vote are inside this eight day window.

And Schiff has to deliver a "report" to support the vote they are talking about.... and the members who would have to, essentially, vote on the report to HJC... have to see it.

Again, it's only an 8 day window, and 6 if Horowitz cuts it down.

Additionally, Nancy Pelosi and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler need this full House authorization vote to gain the authority to penetrate the constitutional firewall that protects the separation of power in the “official” impeachment investigation.

That’s why Pelosi, Schiff and Nadler need to get that mid-December House vote before they lose any SCOTUS ruling.

There are three court cases that touch impeachment. Each of them appears heading to the Supreme Court; one is already there.

The Trump taxes case is likely to be lost by the House oversight committee.

washingtontimes.com/news/2019/nov/…

The HJC case to get grand jury material from the Mueller investigation is in DC Appellate court, reset to Jan 3rd.

sfgate.com/news/article/C…

Regardless of outcome at Appellate court, the grand jury material case is almost certainly going to SCOTUS.

Which leaves the case to enforce Don McGahn subpoena and force testimony. That ruling is expected 11/25. Next Monday.

cnn.com/2019/11/19/pol…

And that will certainly be appealed if the White House loses.

If the House loses the Tax case in SCOTUS (likely), and/or either HJC case in appeals or SCOTUS it will significantly weaken the premise of the "impeachment inquiry".

No constitutional foundation to breech the firewall between the executive and legislative branches.

Which means no constitutional predicate based on the "inquiry", and that weakens the premise behind all of the time Schiff has spent on hearings.

And the House has to vote on those hearings to open the "official" impeachment at HJC.

Pelosi is in a box. A confluence of serendipitous events has boxed them in. It's a legislative mess.

/END

ADD. I like how Jim Jordan puts it when questioned.

Who the heck knows "what's next"?