Few initial thoughts on Tory manifesto. First it is far, far smaller and less ambitious than the notorious 2017 one. All the controversial policies are, unsurprisingly, gone. No cuts to winter fuel allowance. No "dementia tax". It is designed to be as uncontroversial as poss...
By my reckoning, for every pound the Conservatives are pledging to spend on the current budget by 2023/24, Labour will spend over £28. For every pound. Astonishing. difference between the two major parties. Can't remember anything like it.
Here it is in graphic terms: how much each party is planning to increase current spending by in 2023/24
(NB LibDem fig is for 2024/25 deflated via the GDP deflator)
(NB LibDem fig is for 2024/25 deflated via the GDP deflator)
As I understand it, the Tory manifesto is essentially what they were planning to put in the Budget this winter. The NIC increase. the cancellation of corp tax, the extra spending on nurses etc. Which explains why their costings look a lot like, well, a Budget
Despite the Conservatives' stated ambition to increase the National Insurance starting threshold to £12.5k, on the basis of the manifesto costings it will still be down at £9.5k by the end of the next Parliament. Raising it to 12.5k would cost an extra 8bn or so a year(!)
While the gap between the major parties is utterly astonishing when it comes to current spending and taxes, they are actually not dissimilar when it comes to investment spending (this chart)
The Tories should be commeded for providing the costings behind their manifesto. Debatable whether it's really the "most transparent ever" as @sajidjavid claimed but consider that in 2017 the Tories didn't provide any costings AT ALL. This time they've provided quite a lot.
