Today on #CampaignCheck we're looking at the NHS (almost certainly not for the last time) and specifically this claim from Boris Johnson: "we're investing massively in the NHS, the biggest investment for a generation". Is that right...? 
In one sense, yes. Tories plan a £33.9bn increase in NHS England spending to 2023/24. More than any comparable period. But that's not saying much because it doesn't adjust for inflation. When you do, it's a smaller increase than Blair/Brown. So in real terms, the claim's wrong
But that's a good starting point for exploring another question: how does that spending increase compare historically? First, let's have a look at where we are. Here's UK health spending, inflation adjusted, since 1949, the tail-end of the Attlee govt, to today. Note austerity:
Worth remembering: while health spending increased since 2010, it was smallest increase of any govt since creation of NHS, a mere 1.3% average annual real terms increase. I've shaded the chart so you can see which govt was in place when - and the avg increase in NHS spending
What does that chart look like if you plot planned Tory NHS spending? It's a bit tricky cos we don't yet know what they plan for social care/non-England NHS spending but let's assume that stuff is frozen in real terms (which is admittedly a big assumption but what can one do?)...
Here's what the Tory plans imply: a 2.9% avg annual real terms increase. More than during austerity but nonetheless the second-smallest increase of any comparable period since the NHS was created. Far from strongest in a generation it's among the weakest in any postwar generation
Here's what Labour's health plans imply. NB: these figs include social care spending which inflates them compared with the Tories. Strikingly while 4.3% is a big avg increase it's still quite a long way shy of Tony Blair's 6%. Wonder what @jeremycorbyn would make of that?
@jeremycorbyn Here, by the way, are those headline figures on how much the Conservatives are proposing to increase NHS spending (at least at present) and what they look like when you adjust for inflation #campaigncheck
@jeremycorbyn Worth noting that under both Labour and the Conservatives, spending on the NHS as a percentage of UK GDP still won't be back to its 2010 peak until 2020/21. Which obliterates another Tory claim: that they're currently spending more on the NHS than ever before... #campaigncheck
@jeremycorbyn Correction: Labour figs don’t include social care. But they DO include other things like non-NHS spending and capital investments. We don’t have those figs for the Tories (yet) so the numbers aren’t totally comparable & may make Labour increase look a bit bigger than the Tory one
