How confident are the Tories of winning?
The consensus is a 30+ seat majority. But their own targeted advertising paints a different picture.
In the last week, they've moved from offence to defence. Something has them spooked.
A thread (with supporting charts/data).
1/1
The consensus is a 30+ seat majority. But their own targeted advertising paints a different picture.
In the last week, they've moved from offence to defence. Something has them spooked.
A thread (with supporting charts/data).
1/1
Analysis of ACTIVE constituency level ads has shown that the Conservatives have lowered ambitions.
A week ago, the focus was on Lab seats with larger majorities.
Now the focus is on ultra-marginals with a handful of Lab leave-heavy seats.
Attached: live ads in Eng/Wales
2/2
A week ago, the focus was on Lab seats with larger majorities.
Now the focus is on ultra-marginals with a handful of Lab leave-heavy seats.
Attached: live ads in Eng/Wales
2/2
That's only half the picture.
Perhaps more revealing is a new focus on targeted defence of currently held seats.
These are Lab/Con marginals, plus LD targets with big Tory majorities, indicating they are vulnerable in the South of England.
Attached: live ads in Eng/Wales
3/3
Perhaps more revealing is a new focus on targeted defence of currently held seats.
These are Lab/Con marginals, plus LD targets with big Tory majorities, indicating they are vulnerable in the South of England.
Attached: live ads in Eng/Wales
3/3
There are some obvious constituencies missing from their current targeted ads (i.e. Canterbury).
Perhaps they believe this seat is in the bag.
But the overall picture is not a happy tale.
Pouring resources into defence suggests their internal data is spooking them.
4/4
Perhaps they believe this seat is in the bag.
But the overall picture is not a happy tale.
Pouring resources into defence suggests their internal data is spooking them.
4/4
And now I know why:
The data from the YouGov MRP collected over the last 7 days shows positive movement to Labour on each day.
The gap between Con/Lab narrowed by 4.3% over this period.
The Tory manifesto launch and 'antisemitism crisis' day did not stop this trend.
END
The data from the YouGov MRP collected over the last 7 days shows positive movement to Labour on each day.
The gap between Con/Lab narrowed by 4.3% over this period.
The Tory manifesto launch and 'antisemitism crisis' day did not stop this trend.
END
