THREAD on the @YouGov MRP poll, headline 68 Tory majority. For activists, not nerds. 1/ If real, it's the result of a Boris-Farage pact, while Libdems focusing all efforts on beating Labour. Lesson? Massive tactical voting and GOTV for under-65s...
@YouGov 2/ Detail: Many seats are tight. A 3 point swing would deprive Johnson of a majority. Plus poll was taken over 7 day period, so may underestimate recent tightening. But here’s the biggest problem with the MRP method…
@YouGov 3/ MRP takes "what are middle class professionals in general saying" and turns it into "what are middle class professionals in Wimbledon going to do on 12 Dec". It cannot account for local factors like candidate, history of seat etc. But...
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
@YouGov 4/ MRP quite good for showing momentum: how are middle class professional men changing their votes? So here's some takeaways for progressive voters and activists...
@YouGov 5/ A progressive government is entirely within reach: either Lab/SNP/PC/G or the same with Libdem backing. Because BXP is effectively backing the Tories, this becomes a highly tactical election....
@YouGov 6/ What it cannot become is a referendum on Brexit. On the doorstep it's very clear that most Labour voters are prioritising NHS, crime, housing over Brexit. I feared it *would* become a proxy referendum but it is not...
@YouGov 7/ ... in part because the Libdem strategy has bombed. Revoke has bombed among working class Remain voters and Swinson has just self-imploded...but we still need them to take some Tory seats in the south...
@YouGov 8/ So the actions-on until around 6 Dec are: in clear two-horse races, promote tactical voting energetically; Get Out The Vote of the under-65s; make Labour's radical programme real for local areas...
@YouGov 9/ Make no mistake: we can defeat Farage/Johnson. I think all the polling models, inc Yougov's are underestimating the effects of turnout, because they are purposely built to do that. If there was a shock result bcos of turnout, the model would not predict it...
@YouGov 10/10 The left and progressive parties can win this, but only if their bureaucracies and leaders actually want to. In the last 5 days there will be a massive shift to tactical voting among progressive voters, and nobody has the right to stand in the way.
