Thread by @pmdfoster

There will need to be a second 'implementation' phase - even if a new Tory govt rams thru a barebones FTA by end 2020, trade & industry groups are warning.

They are also preparing for a No 10 pile-on before Christmas - my latest /1

telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/…

As @AllieRenison @The_IoD EU trade chief tells me, there is no way biz can adjust overnight to a new tariff/rules of origin/VAT regime - GDPR, the EU's new data regs - had a multi-year grace period before it came into force. /2

@AllieRenison @The_IoD One obvious issue, if aim is to do a barebones deal by Dec 31 2020, is whether details of deal contents will be available any time prior to the FTA being provisionally applied or ratified - unlikely given need to hold cards close as UK simultaneously negotiates non-EU deals /3

@AllieRenison @The_IoD Talking to multiple trade and industry bodies - some who wish to remain nameless - it is clear that there will be a big push after the election to try and inject a dose of reality into the pre-talks period, which will be very tight. /4

@AllieRenison @The_IoD Take the food industry - it is trying to ram home that a "zero tariff, zero quota" deal is pretty meaningless if your products cannot qualify for the 'zero' rate because they don't include sufficient 'local' content - a loaf of bead for example with Canadian wheat /5

@AllieRenison @The_IoD As Ian Wright of the @Foodanddrinkfed tells me flatly "the government doesn't understand supply chains" and needs to do a lot more work on the issue to see how food manufacturers have highly complex sourcing chains for ingredients, which govt greets with "incomprehension" /6

@AllieRenison @The_IoD @Foodanddrinkfed Northern Ireland - and the impact on UK internal market of the new NI 'frontstop' - is also a huge concern.

If no deal is concluded by Dec 31 2020 then @The_IoD thinks govt should remain dynamically aligned with EU until deal can be reached. /7

@AllieRenison @The_IoD @Foodanddrinkfed Two other groups are hearing major concerns from members about the costs of sending goods to NI, given need to complete customs formalities on mixed loads - it could put "thousands" on cost of a single container, I'm told. That will have consequences both sides of Irish Sea/8

@AllieRenison @The_IoD @Foodanddrinkfed The important thing is that while none of these impacts is desirable, then can be managed in an orderly way.

@The_IoD survey found that by factor of nearly two-to-one members wanted content of deal priotised over speed of deal. /9

@AllieRenison @The_IoD @Foodanddrinkfed But come next year - in fact some groups expect to be hammering on the door of Number 10 "before Christmas" - time will be tight.

If govt wants no transition extension, how long will they pause to consult business, but also NGOs (who helped kill TTIP) and civil society? /10

@AllieRenison @The_IoD @Foodanddrinkfed I did a thread last week, with aid of @Brigid_Fowler about extent to which government will consult (tl;dr it's not at all clear) /11

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1200043234011090944?s=20

@AllieRenison @The_IoD @Foodanddrinkfed @Brigid_Fowler The likelihood/assumption among experts like @SamuelMarcLowe is that gravity will have to take over - that elements of any 'barebones' deal will have to be phased in; there will be grace periods etc. But all of that will raise questions of £££ and governance late in 2020 /12

@AllieRenison @The_IoD @Foodanddrinkfed @Brigid_Fowler @SamuelMarcLowe Much will perhaps depend on size of @BorisJohnson majority - IF he gets one - and the governments willingness to, say, align on SPS (animal health) issues and seek other sectoral alignments to reduce frictions.

Many groups still feel there is all to play for. /13 ENDS