Thread by @pmdfoster

So @realDonaldTrump in town from tonight with @BorisJohnson praying for no "December surprise" from The Donald - but as I argue in tonight's #Brexit Bulletin the bigger risk is the UK getting caught piggy in the middle with EU and US. /1 Thread

@realDonaldTrump @BorisJohnson The risk to Johnson is that Trump says something all boosterish about US-UK trade deal, meaning to be helpful but actually highlighting US 'targets' - on pharma, NHS data, agri standards - which were all explicitly set out by USTR earlier this year /2

ustr.gov/sites/default/…

@realDonaldTrump @BorisJohnson Rather than helping, Trump the big bad wolf might look like he's salivating at the prospects of what might be on offer once the UK has severed ties with the EU and politically backed itself into a corner with barebones deal by Dec 2020 /3

@realDonaldTrump @BorisJohnson Because as the leaked US-UK trade docs showed, the conversation comes down to a tussle between two the gravitational pull of two massive and competing regulatory trade orbits in the EU and the US /4

@realDonaldTrump @BorisJohnson The EU is clear it will ask a lot for the price of access to its markets, knowing that it holds the whip-hand in terms of weight of trade; but politically a US deal will vindicate the buccaneer narrative...in an election Mr Johnson can promise the best of both worlds.../5

@realDonaldTrump @BorisJohnson But the reality is hard choices - and the risk that the political imperative of a Canada Dry FTA with EU and something - anything - with the US leaves in the worst, not the best of all worlds, trapped in an unstable equilibrium between two divergent worlds. /6

@realDonaldTrump @BorisJohnson More in the #Brexit Bulletin with me, @asabenn @H_E_Samuel ....as the Trump visit unfolds...you can sign up here.

telegraph.co.uk/pf-brexitbulle…

7/ENDS