Thread by @AMFChina

This is a possible and highly worrisome scenario for the future of Hong Kong. Let's pray that it will not come to pass. But let's take @AvengingDark's vision seriously.

There are numerous factors we need to add to the equation, on the global, national and local level /1

https://twitter.com/AvengingDark/status/1201411378923233280

@AvengingDark In a perverse way a military crackdown in Hong Kong will lead to a much stronger int'l reaction than for example towards the cultural genocide in Xinjiang. There are many foreigners living in HK. And despite capital flight outsiders still own a lot of real estate in Hong Kong /2

@AvengingDark These outsiders include elite members of the CCP, many of whom channel their ill-gotten wealth through Hong Kong. I would love to hear from insiders how many shell companies are registered in HK to facilitate such money laundering through Hong Kong /3

@AvengingDark CCP military rule in Hong Kong would raise the question about the validity of existing commercial agreements. Would HK's common law continue to apply or would PRC law take over? No one can predict how smooth or disruptive such changes would be for mainland China's economy /4

@AvengingDark It doesn't take too much imagination that members of the CCP's princeling 太子黨 faction will fight this scenario tooth & nail. CCP military rule in Hong Kong would mean that they may lose a substantial amount of their ill-gotten assets. This is not in their economic interest /5

@AvengingDark If Xi was to approve a military crackdown in Hong Kong the likelihood is high that we will see a split in the Chinese Communist Party. CCP factions would split not because they love democracy or want to save Hong Kong. They would split in order to secure their assets /6

@AvengingDark Let's add other global players. CCP military rule in Hong Kong would greatly accelerate the economic decoupling between US and China (almost instantly) and EU and China (slower, but would also happen). The reason? Everyone would see that there is zero investor security /7

@AvengingDark If the CCP can wreak havoc in an international financial hub like Hong Kong, why should any foreign investment within mainland China be secure? Of course we know they are not safe, but the situation in Hong Kong would bring this message home to every MNC's Board of Directors /8

@AvengingDark So far Europeans are unwilling to align with the US against CCP-led mainland China due to Trump. But military rule in Hong Kong would lead to a global anti-CCP coalition. It would lead to the formation of a transatlantic alliance + Japan + ASEAN against the Chinese party-state /9

@AvengingDark CCP-led mainland China would have to rely on its domestic market to weather the storm. But the China could only grow so fast and so quick due to the international linkages. I very much doubt that mainland Chinese citizens want to see their country turn into North Korea 2.0. /10

@AvengingDark And now let's speculate about military rule in HK. I don't doubt that the PLA could overwhelm any local resistance with brute force. But the civil war in Lebanon has shown us that it is incredibly difficult to wage a war in a densely populated environment like Hong Kong's /11

@AvengingDark Hong Kong is also sufficiently connected with the outside world that military rule would almost certainly met by a counter-insurgency. You only need a couple of disgruntled Hong Kong tycoons drawing on their considerable wealth to fund such a counter-insurgency /12

@AvengingDark I have called this scenario the Northern Irelandisation of Hong Kong. While I pray that we will never come to see this scenario unfold, it would almost certainly lead to a protracted urban struggle against outside rule. Hong Kong cannot be pacified by brute force /13

@AvengingDark And even if the CCP managed to suppress local resistance, thousands of Hong Kongers would be forced to leave. They would go to Taiwan, South-East Asia, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the US, the UK and mainland Europe. These people will fight the CCP from the outside /14

@AvengingDark Time will tell whose predictions are closer to the mark.

I have always made the case for peaceful state-society relations in mainland China. But Xi Jinping's autocratic rule in mainland China puts domestic peace at risk /15

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@AvengingDark I have also advocated a democratic peace settlement between mainland China, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

But again, the militancy of Xi Jinping's radical revisionist foreign policy puts regional peace at risk /16

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@AvengingDark In my recent article for the IP Journal of the German Council on Foreign Relations @dgapev I pointed out that Xi Jinping is dreaming of Greater China. Yet in fact the CCP has practically lost Hong Kong (and Taiwan) /End