Thread by @AMFChina

The Hong Kong Provisional Government Manifesto is a step in the right direction, but perhaps a bit too limited in scope.

While it is much more specific than the fifth demand in my view it would be better for Hong Kongers to demand constitutional democracy for the PR China /1

https://twitter.com/KsteveT/status/1180135310207770625

Some may say, Andreas, this is rather utopian, no way the Chinese Communist Party under a Stalinist Xi Jinping will ever agree to the demand of constitutional democracy.

But Hong Kongers will need to do something dramatic to overcome the current stalemate /2

The current stalemate can be summarised as follows:

'One Country, Two Systems' (1C2S) is dead in the water.

'One Country, One System' (1C1S) CCP-style is unacceptable to Hong Kongers.

The imposition of martial law in all but name means there is no turning back to IC2S /3

So far the protest movement has been ambiguous in terms of its ultimate goal.

In my view there have been largely two camps: a larger group of ppl who want to preserve Hong Kong's rule of law and 1C2S, and a smaller group of HK Independence-minded ppl /4

So far this coalition between pro-democracy and pro-independence minded people has held together.

But with the CCP weaponising ethnonationalism against the Hong Kongers we have seen a rise of Hong Kong nationalist sentiment /5

1C1S is unacceptable for most Hong Kongers, as it destroys the rule of law and the liberal democratic way of life in Hong Kong.

Moving forward Hong Kongers will have to make a choice: do they want to challenge '1 country' or do they want to hone in on '1 system'? /6

The leaderless (or some say, leaderful) movement in Hong Kong has taken on increasingly localist / nationalist overtones.

This was a logical reaction to the CCP's aggressive mobilisation of ethnonationalism against Hong Kongers /7

But perhaps now would be a good moment to pause and reflect.

Is a focus on '1 country' and the pursuit of an exclusively 'Hong Kong autonomy' strategy going to be the best way forward? /8

I don't think so, since the implicit advocacy of Hong Kong self-determination and/or independence undermines potential support for the movement in mainland China.

This way mainland Chinese citizens will not support Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement in great numbers /9

But for Hong Kong to be truly free and democratic we will need to see regime change in mainland China.

Since Hong Kongers cannot take the struggle for democracy to Beijing and stage mass rallies on Tiananmen Square, they will need the support of mainland Chinese citizens /10

This is why a focus on '1 system' would be better.

Hong Kongers could beat the CCP by advocating 'One Country, One Democratic System'.

I am fully aware that many young Hong Kongers don't believe that is feasible, as they have pretty much given up on mainland China /11

But think about it.

By calling for constitutional democracy for the entirety of China (mainland China + Hong Kong), Hong Kongers are far more likely to gain popular support from mainland Chinese citizens.

This could accelerate the political contagion into the mainland /12

This approach would also counter-act the weaponisation of ethno-nationalism by the CCP.

The party-state will find it harder to mobilise the highly nationalist mainland Chinese youth against Hong Kongers if they call for constitutional democracy for *all* Chinese citizens /13

Let me conclude.

As I pointed out before, 'One Country, Two Systems' is a thing of the past. It won't come back.

So instead of fighting 'One Country', Hong Kongers should mould 'One System' in their beautiful liberal-democratic image /End

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