As always, a very useful thread from @ChadBown. I'd like to add some commentary in a different direction. I keep being struck by the willingness of markets to believe that Trump is finished waging trade war, then being blindsided by his next move 1/
@ChadBown At some point investors will have to realize that Trump is never going to return to business as usual — a rules-based trade policy with fairly predictable rules of the game. The arbitrariness and unpredictability of his moves are a feature, not a bug 2/
@ChadBown First of all, Trump doesn't believe in rules that constrain him, on trade policy or anything else. Beyond that, whim-based trade policy serves a valuable political purpose: it lets him reward friends, both via protection and via tariff exemptions 3/
@ChadBown Why trade policy as opposed to other things? Well, he's trying to do the same elsewhere too. But US trade law happens to give the president extraordinary discretionary power. Given time, he'll turn America crony capitalist more broadly. But trade is where it starts. 4/
