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So, more on that "oven-ready" Brexit, and while some mean by this the Withdrawal Agreement, others refer to "Super Canada" or "Canada-minus". @DCBMEP last year wrote a good paper on this based on his experience as an MEP - let's have a look - dcbmep.org/site/wp-conten… - 1/ thread
@DCBMEP Start with goods tariffs, and I agree with this completely - keeping full quota and tariff free access between EU and UK is not going to be easy, and fishing will be an issue... 2/
@DCBMEP The conclusion on goods in Super-Canada is that this might take considerable negotiating time - which seems fair to me, but perhaps not what we mean by 'oven ready' 3/
@DCBMEP Next to examine, Technical Barriers to Trade, one of a few chapters dealing with non-tariff barriers. Here @DCBMEP proposes as others have an approach managing divergence. I think this could be tricky, and there will also be issues around conformity assessment and standards 4/
@DCBMEP Next from the CETA chapters we have SPS, the rules concerning trade in various agricultural produce. Again, the question of managing divergence. Again, not a direct copy over from EU-Canada to UK-EU 5/
@DCBMEP Investment is another interesting chapter. The EU and Canada agreed to a new Investment Court System, but indications are the UK government is not a fan. It is arguable if we need any provision to allow investors to take a government to a tribunal, but again, work to be done 6/
@DCBMEP Moving onto services, here I think the 'Super-Canada' proposal is super optimistic. There is a single market in services, giving a lot more access to the EU than trade agreements. I can't see the EU rolling over existing levels of access... 7/
@DCBMEP Chapter 10 of CETA covers "Movement of Natural Persons", essentially the framework for business visitors between UK and EU. Again it seems likely that this would need considerable negotiation 8/
@DCBMEP Next for comment "Domestic regulations" (I'm missing out some straightforward chapters) - essentially licensing requirements for services business. Again a little optimistic here on what we might be able to achieve 9/
@DCBMEP Next, financial services, and recognition that we'll need a specific UK-EU arrangement here given the importance of the trade to both parties. Hard to envisage this being quick to agree notwithstanding some thinking already done in the city... 10/
@DCBMEP e-commerce is as suggested likely to be covered in a separate agreement including data transfers - more to do here 11/
@DCBMEP I'd also expect a UK-EU trade agreement to develop provisions on regulatory cooperation some way beyond EU-Canada - but again something that will take time to develop 12/
@DCBMEP Another difficult chapter - Sustainable Development, covering some of the 'level playing field' provisions governing preferential access to a market. Sanctions and enforcement likely to be a big issue here on the EU side 13/
@DCBMEP Much of the rest would be fairly standard, but annexes are always important in trade agreements, as these will contain a lot of the specifics of how trade actually operates, and could also include specific UK-EU topics as suggested here 14/
@DCBMEP Conclusion on Super-Canada - a good starting point for thinking about many of the parts of an EU FTA, along with EU sensitivities. Not unfortunately though anything like "oven ready". Some ingredients we have, others we'll have to develop...15/
@DCBMEP I think @DCBMEP has done a good job in laying out his Super-Canada ideas. Full disclosure I did have an exchange with him last week to check if he wanted to add anything, as things have moved on since publication. Not yet, but evolution of thinking would be quite natural 16/ end
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