(Thread) Speaker Nancy Pelosi says the House will proceed with Articles of Impeachment.
“But wait” you ask. “There are still investigations to be done!”
There is nothing to stop the investigations from continuing.
“Can they impeach again?”
They can but they probably won’t.
“But wait” you ask. “There are still investigations to be done!”
There is nothing to stop the investigations from continuing.
“Can they impeach again?”
They can but they probably won’t.
1/ Disclaimer: I am not privy to inside information, and I dislike making future predictions (which are guesses).
So instead, I'll discuss two options.
(1) The House wraps this up and sends it to the Senate by the end of the year.
So instead, I'll discuss two options.
(1) The House wraps this up and sends it to the Senate by the end of the year.
2/ Option (2) is wait until all the investigations are complete.
The advantage of Option 2 is based on the assumption that there is an advantage to waiting to until we have evidence that:
💠Trump is not actually rich, but is beholden to Russian money
The advantage of Option 2 is based on the assumption that there is an advantage to waiting to until we have evidence that:
💠Trump is not actually rich, but is beholden to Russian money
3/
💠Trump launders money for his Russian pals
💠 Or there's an outrageous piece of evidence (to take a random example) loan docs show that Trump has Russian oligarchs as co-signers.
Here's the thing: We already know Trump is beholden to Russian money. businessinsider.com/donald-trump-j…
💠Trump launders money for his Russian pals
💠 Or there's an outrageous piece of evidence (to take a random example) loan docs show that Trump has Russian oligarchs as co-signers.
Here's the thing: We already know Trump is beholden to Russian money. businessinsider.com/donald-trump-j…
4/ Option 2 is based on the theory that additional financial information will (or might) result in Trump being removed from office.
To remove Trump from office, 2/3 of the Senate needs to vote to remove (convict).
That's a lot of GOP Senators who have to cross over.
To remove Trump from office, 2/3 of the Senate needs to vote to remove (convict).
That's a lot of GOP Senators who have to cross over.
5/ I expect to take some heat for this, but here goes: The goal is not to remove Trump from office.
The goal is to save democracy.
Democrats (and Never Trumpers) can't control whether the Senate removes.
But we can save democracy.
The goal is to save democracy.
Democrats (and Never Trumpers) can't control whether the Senate removes.
But we can save democracy.
6/ Goals must be attainable. (Try this: My goal is for my spouse to [fill in the blank]. It doesn't work. Our goals have to be something we control.)
Now I will list the advantages of wrapping this up by the end of the year (or first thing January).
Now I will list the advantages of wrapping this up by the end of the year (or first thing January).
7/ Left-leaning Twitter often fails to consider the needs of vulnerable House Democrats in red-leaning or Republican districts.
The Democrats won the house in 2018 because of representatives like @LaurenUnderwood.
The Democrats won the house in 2018 because of representatives like @LaurenUnderwood.
@LaurenUnderwood 8/ Read interviews with some of these vulnerable Dems so to understand their needs.
Ignore their needs at the peril of democracy.
Imagine of what would be happening right now if the Dems hadn't won the House.
Operation Ukraine Shakedown would have succeeded.
Ignore their needs at the peril of democracy.
Imagine of what would be happening right now if the Dems hadn't won the House.
Operation Ukraine Shakedown would have succeeded.
@LaurenUnderwood 9/ Consider this: The Republicans WANT to slow down the process. Trump's strategy is to slow things down.
Turley's argument was that Democrats are "rushing" things.
Delaying the process plays into Trump's hands.
Turley's argument was that Democrats are "rushing" things.
Delaying the process plays into Trump's hands.
@LaurenUnderwood 10/ Why the Trump-GOP wants the process to move slower:
💠The public can wear out. The GOP recognizes that this is one thing that went wrong with the Clinton impeachment. Many years of investigation worked against them.
💠Check out the impeachment polls. They're not great.
💠The public can wear out. The GOP recognizes that this is one thing that went wrong with the Clinton impeachment. Many years of investigation worked against them.
💠Check out the impeachment polls. They're not great.
@LaurenUnderwood 11/ I prefer polling aggregates, like @FiveThirtyEight, which prevents us from focusing on outlying polls.
Click on the diagram over time 👇
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval…
💠A slower pace could allow the Trump-GOP to regain control of the narrative, as they did with the Mueller probe.
Click on the diagram over time 👇
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval…
💠A slower pace could allow the Trump-GOP to regain control of the narrative, as they did with the Mueller probe.
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight 12/ The polling aggregate tells me that public opinion can move, but not much.
So let's take this scenario: The Democrats send the matter to the house by January (or in January).
The Senate does its thing and Trump remains in office.
So let's take this scenario: The Democrats send the matter to the house by January (or in January).
The Senate does its thing and Trump remains in office.
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight 13/ I said "does its thing" because there are a few ways the Senate can proceed. Let's assume that Trump stays in office because that's the most likely scenario.
The House Dems have the impeachment matter behind them, and can focus on doing the work that will get them reelected.
The House Dems have the impeachment matter behind them, and can focus on doing the work that will get them reelected.
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight 14/ This helps the vulnerable Democrats.
Then, in the spring, out come financial bombshells that torpedo Trump's chances for reelection and splinter and divide the GOP going into the election.
Last spring, a lot of people didn't really understand how impeachment worked.
Then, in the spring, out come financial bombshells that torpedo Trump's chances for reelection and splinter and divide the GOP going into the election.
Last spring, a lot of people didn't really understand how impeachment worked.
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight 15/ It's time consuming. It's draining.
The Republicans seize the opportunity for grandstanding and fact-smashing.
As a legal matter, yes, the House can keep impeaching and the Senate can keep holding trials.
I think it would be a political blunder.
The Republicans seize the opportunity for grandstanding and fact-smashing.
As a legal matter, yes, the House can keep impeaching and the Senate can keep holding trials.
I think it would be a political blunder.
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight 16/ The GOP, yesterday, asked for additional hearings.
💠They want more hearings
💠They want to drag it out
💠They want more chances to throw mud (or whatever)
💠They're accusing the Democrats of "rushing" things.
Baloney. The Dems are working around the clock to get this done.
💠They want more hearings
💠They want to drag it out
💠They want more chances to throw mud (or whatever)
💠They're accusing the Democrats of "rushing" things.
Baloney. The Dems are working around the clock to get this done.
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight 17/ The Report put out by the Intelligence Committee was a spectacular piece of legal writing, much better than the Mueller Report.
"Rushed" implies slipshod.
There was nothing slipshod.
It was brilliant and complete. I can only imagine the hundreds of hours of overtime.
"Rushed" implies slipshod.
There was nothing slipshod.
It was brilliant and complete. I can only imagine the hundreds of hours of overtime.
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight 18/ The trial happens in the Senate.
Maybe there's no need to wait for the Supreme Court to decide these cases.
Chief Justice Roberts will preside at the Senate Trial.
Consider this. . .
Maybe there's no need to wait for the Supreme Court to decide these cases.
Chief Justice Roberts will preside at the Senate Trial.
Consider this. . .
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight 19/ The Constitution tells us that House Managers present the case in the Senate.
What if the Managers at trial call as witnesses all the people stonewalling the subpoenas?
Roberts can order them to testify and bring documents.
There you go!
What if the Managers at trial call as witnesses all the people stonewalling the subpoenas?
Roberts can order them to testify and bring documents.
There you go!
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight 20/ That's the easiest way to get the docs.
Plus great optics.
Instead of the obstruction and defiance of subpoenas happening offstage, it happens right there on the Senate floor, with cameras rolling.
Everyone knows that innocent people don't try to hide evidence.
Plus great optics.
Instead of the obstruction and defiance of subpoenas happening offstage, it happens right there on the Senate floor, with cameras rolling.
Everyone knows that innocent people don't try to hide evidence.
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight Adding this⤵️because it's a thoughtful tweet and a good reminder that there are lots of ways to think about this.
Last spring, people were saying, "If Pelosi doesn't impeach right now [insert dire warning]."
Take all such absolutes with a grain of salt.
Last spring, people were saying, "If Pelosi doesn't impeach right now [insert dire warning]."
Take all such absolutes with a grain of salt.
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight The strategy (delay or quick) is different with the Senate trial than with the impeachment.
Impeachment is just an indictment. The House Managers will have opportunity to present their evidence at a trial.
Impeachment is just an indictment. The House Managers will have opportunity to present their evidence at a trial.
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight Yesterday, the Republicans on the Judiciary Committee were insisting on additional Impeachment hearings.
This is a delay tactic. So are Trump's lawsuits.
They want people to believe that Democrats are rushing the impeachment because it's a way to undermine the Democrats.
This is a delay tactic. So are Trump's lawsuits.
They want people to believe that Democrats are rushing the impeachment because it's a way to undermine the Democrats.
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight *I should have said LIKE an indictment, not IS an indictment.
Impeachment, of course, is not actually an indictment, but the analogy mostly works.
It's a helpful way to think of it, but there are differences.
Impeachment, of course, is not actually an indictment, but the analogy mostly works.
It's a helpful way to think of it, but there are differences.
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight The House selects the managers.
I'll guess some combination of @RepAdamSchiff, @danielsgoldman, @NormEisen or Barry Berke I think this is him: @BarryBerke
I'll guess some combination of @RepAdamSchiff, @danielsgoldman, @NormEisen or Barry Berke I think this is him: @BarryBerke
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight @RepAdamSchiff @danielsgoldman @NormEisen @BarryBerke Remember, if the Supreme Court refuses to take the cases, the whole thing wraps up. The House gets all the financials now.
That's the hope, of course.
That's the hope, of course.
@LaurenUnderwood @FiveThirtyEight @RepAdamSchiff @danielsgoldman @NormEisen @BarryBerke I think that was @tribelaw
I learned Constitutional Law from the book he wrote, so I should probably defer—but I just can't see this happening.
There's always the option (in both the House and Senate) of censuring instead of impeaching or removing.
I learned Constitutional Law from the book he wrote, so I should probably defer—but I just can't see this happening.
There's always the option (in both the House and Senate) of censuring instead of impeaching or removing.
