Thread by @pmdfoster

There is a lot of 'nothing to see here' response to leaked @hmtreasury assessment of @BorisJohnson #Brexit Northern Ireland deal to @jeremycorbyn ...but in truth there is a EVERYTHING to see.

Some thoughts 1/Thread

@hmtreasury @BorisJohnson @jeremycorbyn The document blows a hole in the idea that @BorisJohnson deal will "Get #Brexit Done" and that his Northern Ireland only 'frontstop' has put the Irish issue to bed. It SO hasn't. That story is only just beginning. Here's why.... /2

The deal promised (in vain as far as the @duponline were concerned) to have "unfettered" access for Northern Ireland business and consumers to the UK's internal market - recall "unfettered" was the key word added in 2017 to the Joint Report, to keep Unionists on board. /3

@duponline It is also the thrust of @BorisJohnson position that there will be NO CHECKS for NI businesses sending goods to GB...even though, as this document shows, there WILL be export summary declarations, per EU rules for stuff leaving single market/4

More here: ec.europa.eu/taxation_custo…

@duponline @BorisJohnson So the QUESTION is whether or not the GB side would enforce those checks...@BorisJohnson hints not..but this document shows very clear clear that HM Treasury is NOT on board.... so look at these two slides /5

@duponline @BorisJohnson What this is is a Treasury LOBBY document against unfettered access...it plays on the RISKS and makes clear (per this table) that the 'unfettered' part is far from a done deal. Look at the righthand column (GB-NI)...lots of ?????? /6

@duponline @BorisJohnson And look at this slide. The reference to fearsome objections from the Scottish Govt (SG) and the Welsh Govt....that's the sound of the Treasury making its case in Whitehall... are the Scots/Welsh really piling in on this? Not crossed my radar. /7

@duponline @BorisJohnson Now, I'd be willing to bet that the Northern Ireland Office doesn't share these HMT views...

It may be that @BorisJohnson if he gets majority will over-rule...

But to be clear, there is everything to play for here... /8

@duponline @BorisJohnson Because if Treasury gets its way, that 'hard border' in the Irish Sea will cut both ways.

Big question: will this be sorted in the Withdrawal Agreement Billl when it comes back, if Johnson wins?

If not, will Whitehall's utter indifference to NI lead to a hard border? /9

@duponline @BorisJohnson The Union is at stake here, and the 'Get #Brexit Done' narrative is just skating over these huge issues.

This election is NOT creating the conditions, I fear, for reasonable and considered debate on this. For a start, there is no time. /10

@duponline @BorisJohnson Now to the next part - what it means of NI having this border in the Irish Sea....

The slides are instructive on this point.... "highly disruptive" and retail jobs hit, prices rising, tariff equivalents of 30 PER CENT....just think about that. /11

I touched on this in a piece/thread this morning...the shape of UK-EU trade deal remains to be seen, but for GB companies sending to UK the costs will be really significant. Maybe several thousand ££ per container...that will hit both sides. /12

None of this comes as a surprise to Northern Irish business groups - @ManufacturingNI @MichaelAodhan @Freight_NI all piled in immediately after the Johnson 'deal' was done and submitted a lengthy document to the Sec of State NI listing issues needed to protect NI /13

@ManufacturingNI @MichaelAodhan @Freight_NI It's an eye-watering list of issues about the impact of this new border, in both directions.

It considers both frictional costs for inputs coming from GB; and for NI companies that want to continue doing biz in the UK...all of that gets a world more complex. /14

@ManufacturingNI @MichaelAodhan @Freight_NI What about, for EG, the NI cottage pie maker that supplies GB supermarkets which wants all GB content in the product - but the NI maker finds his Lincolnshire carrot supplier can't be arsed with the paperwork. Then the NI biz can't fill their order. /15

@ManufacturingNI @MichaelAodhan @Freight_NI What protections or compensations will there be for NI business facing these challenges?

Will NI get excluded from 'Buy British' campaigns? Will NI biz have any redress if they get dropped by GB customers?

Will UK govt match Irish govt agrifood support? If not, NI suffers /16

@ManufacturingNI @MichaelAodhan @Freight_NI On and on it goes.

There are ways to offset - giving NI a proper voice in EU-UK governance committees; giving NI chunks of GB infrastructure projects...investing in road, rail, port upgrades...

But recall NI starts from behind /17

@ManufacturingNI @MichaelAodhan @Freight_NI All of this is hurtling down the tracks...as I wrote this morning.

Biz groups are waiting to pour through the door. Since I wrote that piece, three more are in touch, wanting their say.

This stuff is too important to be rushed, and it will cause internal Whitehall wars /18

@ManufacturingNI @MichaelAodhan @Freight_NI Take that recent example of eggs + tariffs/no tarrifs after #Brexit

HMT want to keep food prices down
Defra wants to keep welfare up
DiT wants space to do FTAs

These circles cannot all be squared. Business, civil society, NGOs all need their say. /19

@ManufacturingNI @MichaelAodhan @Freight_NI But for political reasons, they may well not get it.

Sure, at one level this document tells those who knew where to look, what they already knew.

But many haven't looked at what's coming. Not really. 20/ENDS