Some thoughts 1/Thread
More here: ec.europa.eu/taxation_custo…
It may be that @BorisJohnson if he gets majority will over-rule...
But to be clear, there is everything to play for here... /8
Big question: will this be sorted in the Withdrawal Agreement Billl when it comes back, if Johnson wins?
If not, will Whitehall's utter indifference to NI lead to a hard border? /9
This election is NOT creating the conditions, I fear, for reasonable and considered debate on this. For a start, there is no time. /10
The slides are instructive on this point.... "highly disruptive" and retail jobs hit, prices rising, tariff equivalents of 30 PER CENT....just think about that. /11
It considers both frictional costs for inputs coming from GB; and for NI companies that want to continue doing biz in the UK...all of that gets a world more complex. /14
Will NI get excluded from 'Buy British' campaigns? Will NI biz have any redress if they get dropped by GB customers?
Will UK govt match Irish govt agrifood support? If not, NI suffers /16
There are ways to offset - giving NI a proper voice in EU-UK governance committees; giving NI chunks of GB infrastructure projects...investing in road, rail, port upgrades...
But recall NI starts from behind /17
Biz groups are waiting to pour through the door. Since I wrote that piece, three more are in touch, wanting their say.
This stuff is too important to be rushed, and it will cause internal Whitehall wars /18
HMT want to keep food prices down
Defra wants to keep welfare up
DiT wants space to do FTAs
These circles cannot all be squared. Business, civil society, NGOs all need their say. /19
Sure, at one level this document tells those who knew where to look, what they already knew.
But many haven't looked at what's coming. Not really. 20/ENDS