Thread by @shaunjlawson

I love Cremant to bits and agree with her on 99% of everything. But this thread, in part at least, is flawed.

https://twitter.com/0Calamity/status/1203604899398922241

It's flawed because Labour *haven't* come out for Remain. Labour's position is still soft Leave - but with an abundantly necessary final say.

It's flawed because Labour were losing scores and scores of voters to the Lib Dems over the last year or so. Understandably so. And why?

Because no responsible party seeking not just to govern, but to unify a poisonously divided country, can afford to ignore half of it.

Labour's via media remains the correct approach and only grown-up one.

I often speak to Remainers who still say things like "if anyone else was Labour leader, they'd be 20 points ahead!" But everyone else don't think like dyed in the wool Remainers - just as everyone else don't think like dyed in the wool Leavers either.

The country is split down the middle. On age, on culture, on world view. Anyone who thinks half of it can just be ignored for reasons of expediency clearly isn't interested in what caused such a whopping divide in the first place, or in mending all those underlying causes.

More broadly: I'm hesitant to either endorse tactical voting - because I share some of Cremant's concerns about the potential cynicism of some of those calling it - or castigate it, because I know how FPTP works. And how it works is as follows.

Farage's decision not to campaign against the Tories in each seat they hold means there's just one Brexit candidate there, up against two or more Remainers. Who are likely to cancel each other out. One party on the right v two parties seen by voters as 'progressive' is bad news.

I've looked at the numbers - and unless the polls are more wrong than they've ever been (which with their recent record, I wouldn't rule out), we're in trouble.

1. I cannot see any way in which the Tories won't be the largest party.

2. I can barely see a path to keeping them below around 305 seats. It's there, just about, but it's a huge ask.

3. Even by recovering slightly from where they were in 2017 (8%) - say, by improving 2 or 3 points - the Lib Dems will take many of those votes from Labour.

4. That means our chances of finishing within 2 points of the Tories - which we must do if we're to form a minority government backed by the SNP - are massively negated. Probably terminally.

That's why Johnson's whole strategy has been Brexit Brexit Brexit - because he knows that's how he locks up at least 40% of the vote, and likely a bit more. I cannot see the Tories falling below 40 on Thursday; I struggle to see Labour climbing above 35, let alone 38.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad tidings - but I, and many others I think, can see which way the wind's blowing. Is there a path still there? Yes, just. But it's gonna need a heck of a turnout from young people - and some very very sophisticated voting in certain constituencies.

As things stand, do I think the Tories will get a majority? I'd say it's about 50-50... but my gut sense is 'no', because it just doesn't make sense, even under FPTP, for such an extreme, divisive, destructive party to win a majority. In many ways, FPTP did its job in 2017.

But it'd take something cataclysmic for them not to be the largest party. If they remain in government in whatever form, the short and medium term future for the UK will never have looked bleaker. The longer term one is good because of what today's young will do to the Tories.

But all that's to assume we still have a recognisable, functioning democracy by the time today's young are in a dominant position in terms of deciding elections. Under the Tories, the UK will head towards and likely into real authoritarianism.

Paul's right about constituencies being rigged, voter ID, and all the rest of it. Let alone what's gonna happen to the NHS. So my advice is as follows.

Over the next 4 days, campaign as you've never done before. Let people know what's being planned. Let them know the truth of how this decision is of monumental importance for their lives and those of their children.

Be positive. Share the manifesto. Highlight it to people you talk to.

And if you live in a marginal, do your research. If it's Tory/Lib Dem based on 2017, vote Lib Dem. If it's anything else, as in the huge bulk of cases, vote Labour.

The UK is sleepwalking. It's a little over 100 hours away from total disaster. It's incumbent on everyone to get that message across.

The Tories are planning No Deal, and they're on track to get it. The electorate, uninformed of this by a joke of a media, have to stop them.

Addendum re: tactical voting. No issue if you vote SNP. In many constituencies in Scotland, voting Labour may waste your vote. But that's just for Scotland - where I think the SNP may well hit 45% again, as in 2015. And Swinson will likely lose her seat too.

PS. Summing up the campaign to this point: we're closing the gap, but not quickly enough. And categorically, it's not been as effective or impressive as 2017 - when we still came up short. I think the smears and attacks have taken their toll on Corbyn, who I just wanna give a hug

I cannot even begin to describe how nauseated I am by his treatment from so many. I think he's completely bewildered by it.

What that treatment says about UK media and politics is... about the worst thing imaginable.

Some people call him 'weak'. He's actually the strongest man I've ever seen in British politics - because I have no idea how someone this decent handles such constant vicious slander and abuse. He's a bigger man than anyone I know of.

Which is why I think he'd be an EXCELLENT Prime Minister, very much in the spirit of Attlee.

I just hope and pray he gets the chance.