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So, Denmark just passed its new climate law with everyone cheering

But no estimate of costs: Truth is, additional cost is 1-6% of GDP (>$120bn)

No estimates of benefits: Truth is, it will cut temperature in 2100 by a ten-thousandth of a degree Celsius

Nothing to celebrate
No official estimates. Costs estimated using Stanford Energy Modeling forum EMF28, and RICE

Temp benefit of 0.00001°C from UN standard estimate 1000GtCO₂=0.45°C, also from UN climate model MAGICC run

worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.114…
google.com/books/edition/…
live.magicc.org
Notice, this is only an estimate of the cost of the recent climate policies (i.e. going to 70% in 2030) and their increase in climate impacts,
here from my Danish article
berlingske.dk/kronikker/bjoe….
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More from @BjornLomborg see all

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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
Bad climate policies proliferating:

Sweden to cut transport emissions by 70% in 2030

Will cost $5bn (1% GDP loss) per year by 2030 if done *most* effectively

Will cut 10.1MtCO₂e, so $500/tonne. Damage reduction is $31/t so

$1 will deliver 6¢ of climate benefits

Congrats
1% of GDP by 2030 is government's own estimate
konj.se/download/18.db…

Doesn't include transition costs + make a number of other, unrealistically optimistic estimates (like vastly increased biofuels won't lead to price hikes) p74

They even call this 1% cost 'relatively low' :)
GDP of $506bn in 2030 from SSP2
tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Acti…

10.1Mt from report, p8

Estimate of $31 across all SSPs and all damage functions, for 2030 from sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 5 tweets
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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
Extreme weather not destroying more

Each climate conference day, we will look at the data

Flash flood is not worse:

Lower share of economy damaged by flash floods, not higher (because of more resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Exactly what's found for floods and for mortality for all areas from last week
Some people have asked why the numbers only start in 1989 — it is because it is running 10-year averages (so 1989 is the average of 1980-1989).
Read 6 tweets
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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
Extreme weather not killing more

Each climate conference day, we have looked at the data

Flooding is not worse:

Fewer people die from floods, not more (because of higher wealth and resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
And flash floods are not worse:

Fewer people die from flash floods, not more (because of higher wealth and resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
And coastal floods are not worse:

Fewer people die from coastal floods, not more (because of higher wealth and resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 10 tweets

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Dragos Stefanescu
@DrgStefanescu
🌎The Week In Climate 2nd -8th Dec🌍

From #COP25Madrid to new climate forecasting models being analysed, as well as lots in the realm of politics, we have a lot of ground to cover.

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Teresa Anderson
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By ignoring socio-economic realities facing the people that the tech is supposed to benefit, GM Golden Rice could make things much, much worse for them.

Good lessons for #climate movement on the need to assess hi-tech “solutions" from all angles.
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Tom Krebs
@tom_krebs_
The German government unveiled a major policy package to combat #climate change. The subsequent discussion in the German media shows the huge political and economic cost of a simple-minded focus on #carbon pricing – it’s the 1980s all over again! A Thread @BMF_Bund @JWMason1
The policy package contains a mix of mainly sensible measures: A slowly increasing carbon price, public investment (public trains), subsidies for switching to green technology, transfers to compensate “losers”, and a plan to move out of coal energy.
What happened in the subsequent media discussion is very interesting. As expected, there was critique of certain transfers and subsidies that some groups did not like (“waste of money”). Also, the opposition parties were critical – no surprise here.
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Ruerd Heeg
@RuerdHeeg
0/ In this thread I will explain how a new, more reliable estimate for battery costs affects gross margins for model 3.
1/ Thanks to the great work of @subach, which was thoroughly verified by @KawasakiKR11 we now know more about $TSLA battery costs. Most likely these costs are $240/kWh. We can use it to compute the cost price of model 3.

2/ To compute the cost price of a model 3 we also need labor and other production costs and costs of other materials than batteries. I found 2 sources to estimate these costs.
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