Happy holidays! Santanomics 🎅🏻🤓 is bringing us China data dump this morning at 10am and Indonesia November trade data (more weakness, esp from imports which is bad news for domestic demand).
Expectations of Nov data subdued (the bounce of Nov TSF won't show up till later) 🌲🎄
Expectations of Nov data subdued (the bounce of Nov TSF won't show up till later) 🌲🎄
A few Asian central banks are having their meeting this week & here are our views:
BOT 🇹🇭 on wed (hold at 1.25%) - hold (newsworthy out of Thailand is politics not monetary)
Taiwan 🇹🇼 hold at 1.375
Indonesia hold at 5% (50bps RRR in effect 4 Jan)
BOJ hold at -0.1% as out of ammo
BOT 🇹🇭 on wed (hold at 1.25%) - hold (newsworthy out of Thailand is politics not monetary)
Taiwan 🇹🇼 hold at 1.375
Indonesia hold at 5% (50bps RRR in effect 4 Jan)
BOJ hold at -0.1% as out of ammo
And markets are curbing enthusiasm over the trade-deal (yep, Asia equities were rallying way too hard on Friday) as the Phase 1 deal isn't one to solve all problems as issues w/ the global economy aren't due to trade-war - that's just the icing on the cake of weak fundamentals👈🏻
Wrote this on Friday regarding trade-war & I'm still sticking by it 👇🏻👇🏻:
And here is a podcast on trade-war w/ @Lingling_Wei @Trinhnomics @andypeaps recorded a few weeks ago but everything on that is still relevant.
Yep, that's how I talk in real life - one strong stream of consciousness of many thoughts firing at once😬...
Yep, that's how I talk in real life - one strong stream of consciousness of many thoughts firing at once😬...
@Lingling_Wei @andypeaps Industrial production exceeded expectations by growing at 6.2% from 4.7% & higher than the 5% expectations.
But FAI (investment) is same at 5.2% & retails sales slowed on a ytd basis at 8% from 8.1%.
In short, a spurt but investment remains weak!!! Will post details in a bit!
But FAI (investment) is same at 5.2% & retails sales slowed on a ytd basis at 8% from 8.1%.
In short, a spurt but investment remains weak!!! Will post details in a bit!
@Lingling_Wei @andypeaps Details of investment is not good - state-led investment is down to 6.9%YoY from 7.4% and private improved a bit but stuck in a rut
What is key about state-owned investment deceleration is that it is different from 2015 & 2016 bounce & why this time it's WORSE. Help not here yet
What is key about state-owned investment deceleration is that it is different from 2015 & 2016 bounce & why this time it's WORSE. Help not here yet
@Lingling_Wei @andypeaps Investment by sector: Food down 📉, manufacturing 📉decelerating. Few bright spots in investment here & the slowdown of state-owned investment is pretty worrying & can see why TSF bounced in November 👇🏻
@Lingling_Wei @andypeaps Anyway, data shows that there is a bit of a cyclical recovery in China & you can say this will extend across Asia but on aggregate the slowdown continues. Meaning, while some sectors may recover, the structural weakness persists into 2020 & we all will have to live in slow growth
@Lingling_Wei @andypeaps In such a new normal, those that have stronger fundamentals will do better & those more leveraged will not do as well.
Cost cutting & growth seeking remain the theme for firms as they must all turn Japanese to protect shrinking profit margin. And yes, that impacts u too 👈🏻👈🏻👈🏻
Cost cutting & growth seeking remain the theme for firms as they must all turn Japanese to protect shrinking profit margin. And yes, that impacts u too 👈🏻👈🏻👈🏻
