Excellent thread by @CER_Grant as always. A few additional macro points. The politics of the withdrawal/divorce were legacy defining issues for @JunckerEU & @donaldtusk. As such, it was guaranteed to command their full attention. Perhaps Merkel's too 1/
Will this be same for @vonderleyen & @CharlesMichel? Think future UK-EU relations will be imp, yes; but as one issue among many other equally if not more imp ones - eg Green New Deal; MFF & international profile of Euro. There'll also be possible unhelpful political distractions
What if Germany's Govt collapses next year? Or Salvini wins power in Italy? Besides other substantive policy priorities & political risks, it's also imp to note EU side is more divided on strategy over phase 2; debate between @EU_Commission & EU capitals over prioritisation 3/
COM wants to focus on areas where there's no fallback: FTA, LPF & governance. MS don't. This could increase the risk of a messy course correction in July, once 27 are clear BJ will not extend transition & little progress has been made by that time as negotiations had no focus 4/
So I agree with all of Charles's conclusions. But all in all I think the politics & priorities on EU side could introduce more risks into the phase 2 process than existed with divorce ENDS
