Back to Brexit. That’s where @BorisJohnson wants to get in rest of election campaign. PM tells The Sun: “I just really worry that people aren’t focusing on the real political crisis and the reason why we had to do this thing.” Concedes campaign “has gone through various phases.”
Reflects private Tory fears that poll lead could narrow further without Brexit in the headlines. Problem is it might not be easy after London Bridge attack & with @realDonaldTrump in town 2/
But we think London Bridge attack is unlikely to have same political impact on election as those in 2017; Johnson’s pre-emptive action, including urgent review of 74 other convicted terrorists released on licence, will likely cushion him against backlash @theresa_may suffered 3/
Johnson’s response to Friday’s events, as well as his promise of a more interventionist state-aid policy after Brexit, will likely play well with working-class voters in North & Midlands who will probably decide this election 4/
.@jeremycorbyn more balanced approach will resonate with middle class voters, but that is not where @UKLabour needs to extend its appeal 5/
So despite anxiety among Tory strategists about @realDonaldTrump visit this week, we are holding our election probabilities for now—a Tory majority Govt at 60%; a Labour minority Govt at 25%; a Tory minority Govt at 10% & risk of deadlock at 5% ENDS
