Wanted to build on my thread yesterday regarding internal EU debate on phase 2 #Brexit negotiations with some views from Paris. French sources also say that the optimum outcome would be a system of post-Brexit accords (unwilling to use word treaty) between the EU27 and UK 1/
But there is caution in Paris about: 1) @BorisJohnson real intentions if he wins on 12 Dec; 2) possible bust-ups on fishing rights and/or US trade 2/
.@EmmanuelMacron vision of a new European architecture – first sketched at Sorbonne in 2017; renewed/revised in his @TheEconomist @PedderSophie interview – already implies a formal relationship with a UK outside the EU treaties. How this might happen is open for debate 3/
Paris sources say they are especially keen on keeping UK as part of discussions on future of European defence/security, whether inside or outside NATO. Germany & others more keen on some sort of permanent oversight of the trade/economic relationship. France relaxed about this 4/
But senior French sources express wariness on several points. First, how serious is @BorisJohnson (assuming his victory on 12 Dec) about lightning talks on a trade deal with EU? Only possible to imagine such a deal by July if UK swallows EU demands wholesale 5/
Second, any deal on trade – not just trade in seafood – will depend on UK accepting that it must negotiate extensive access to its fishing grounds for EU vessels, based on historic rights/existing quotas/international maritime law. This is non-negotiable for Paris 6/
The experience of Johnson’s cave-in on the Irish backstop leads France to believe (hope) that he will stand his campaign rhetoric on its head and accept such EU terms fairly meekly. If he really wants to “get Brexit done” by July (ie no extension), that will be the price 7/
But there is some fear in Paris that, au contraire, a Johnson emboldened by an election victory and closely marked by the hard Tory Brexiteers will want to stand firm & pick quarrels with the EU27; plunge UK & EU into a No Deal post-Brexit on 31 Dec 2020 8/
Finally, senior German & French sources talk down the prospect that the "future of Europe conference" - where all buzz is in Bxl right now - will create vehicle to redefine (& reimagine) EU's awkward relationship with 3rd countries (UK, Turkey, Switzerland) 9/
So best not to get hopes up. There'll be other ways EU seeks to limit UK-EU divergence, as I threaded yesterday (interdependent agreements that link economic divergence to security co-operation, EU funding/programs etc) rather than creating special status/carve outs for UK ENDS
