1/? Some thoughts on this new Probe poll probe-research.com/polls/support-… #mbpoli
2/. First off, I need to stress that polls this far out from the next election mean little, but can still be interesting if a trend develops.
3/. I’m going to quibble a bit with Probe’s choosing to contrast the new poll numbers with the recent election results. The poll numbers for Tories are actually very close to the last Probe poll, taken just before the election.
4/? Probe’s August poll registered Tory support several points below what the Tories got on September E-Day. so poll to poll is a better apples to apple comparison imo.
5/? The poll has indirect bad news for the Tories in that the Liberal and Green support is lower, and that support appears to have gone to the NDP, especially in Winnipeg.
6/? Lib E-day results have traditionally been lower than their showing in Probe polls, so Libs should be concerned if their numbers now become part of a trend.
7/? Winnipeg has32 of 57 legis seats, so the Tories will need to find a way to shore up urban support -again, if these latest numbers become a trend.
8/? (Probe doesn’t include leaders’ names in its questions, unlike Mainstreet, for example, so there is a possibility that some respondents may confuse provincial and federal parties when answering)
9/? There are other factors outside any polling firm’s control, such as each party’s ability to get voters to the polls. That is commonly thought to be why Tories register higher on E-day than in polls and Libs lower.
10/10. And there are likely big changes before the 2023 election. Health care reforms will be mostly finished, education reforms underway, education property tax cuts could start, economy could rebound, and it’s too early to say whether one or more party leaders will change
