Thread by @pmdfoster

Brutal summary of DUP @duponline
#brexit miscalculation by @IrishTimes's @GerryMoriartyIT ....which in the twilight of 2019 begs some troubling questions about what happens in 2020...
1/Thread

irishtimes.com/news/politics/…

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT The first thing is the extend of the @BorisJohnson betrayal...

A Conservative & Unionist PM consigns a part of the Union to being a regulatory exclave of a foreign trading power without the consent of his fellow Unionists.../2

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson And this new EU regulatory colony (as the DUP Brexiteers will see it) is consigned to the same relationship @BorisJohnson deemed utterly unacceptable for the rest of the Union.

As @GerryMoriartyIT ways, no-one says the @duponline weren't warned, but thats besides point now/3

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson And as if the @duponline betrayal complex wasn't bad enough ("the economic equivalent of the 1985 Anglo-Irish Agreement", as it was described to me by one DUP man) @BorisJohnson was not punished for this betrayal...au contraire, he won an 86 seat majority! /4

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson The unanswered question for 2020 and beyond is whether @BorisJohnson and his man Mr Cummings will continue to reap the political dividend from this victory....or if the triumph of 2019 turns out to be shortlived/superficial. /5

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson Because those of us that railed about the non-viability of a new North-South trade border imposed without the consent of nationalist communities living on that border...might also fret about an west-east border imposed without consent on Unionists. /6

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson Thust far, both @BorisJohnson and @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney have glossed over some of these more uncomfortable truths.

Johnson says there will be 'no checks', no 'border in the Irish Sea.

Varadkar/Coveney says NI has 'best of both worlds'...

Not true x 2. /7

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney There will be checks - although the extent of them is TBC.

They will be significantly greater GB-NI than the pre-Brexit live animal/SPS checks at Larne, but how much depends on the new Joint Committee and how the new customs filter is applied. /8

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney But as the UK Treasury own estimates suggest, the costs are likely to be significant for the one part of the UK whose economy is still at pre-financial crisis levels..... /9

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney It certainly isn't the 'best of both worlds' in the same sense as @theresa_may's deal was...it leaves NI business becoming a potential regulatory headache for GB customers, as NI Biz groups have warned. /10

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @theresa_may The risk is NI biz becomes more trouble than its worth, EVEN IF (as Mr Johnson promises) there will be no/ultralow checks on goods flowing NI-GB (who will still need to do EU export declarations, unless these can be negotiated away). So not best of both worlds. /11

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @theresa_may A lot will depend (and this is true for all these coming negotiations) on how the UK side plays it - but the operation of that customs filter will also be in gift of EU: what proportion of NI-bound goods must be in 'red' channel and what in Green. /12

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @theresa_may And recalling that the Unionist community has not given consent for this new border, how it will react on the ground to being cordoned off behind a new customs border in the Irish Sea. Is it a matter of principle? Or a matter of time if downstream costs filter into NI? /13

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @theresa_may Or does none of it matter?

The rest of the Union just handed Mr Johnson an 86-seat majority, notwithstanding his betrayal of the @duponline

Even if there is a violent backlash against the new customs sheds at Larne, will anyone in GB care? /14

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @theresa_may The Johnson/Cummings political calculation in GB is - I presume - that they wont.

After all, for the majority of the negotiation they were angling for a new North-South border despite all the warning from PSNI of risk of violence. Only the Irish govt stopped them. /15

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @theresa_may Dominic Cummings, after all, was prepared to force through a 'no deal' Brexit without any provision for the direct rule legislation that would have been needed to stabilise NI in the event of a 'no deal' given the Stormon Executive wasn't sitting. /16

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @theresa_may To say that Westminster/Whitehall has been affected by a bout of institutional amnesia with regard to Northern Ireland is the kindest way of putting it. /17

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @theresa_may So tldr; even the NI 'frontstop' does go to hell in a handbasket, it may not matter anyway...or that may be the view from SW1.

A few angry Orangemen. For a change (eyeroll).... /18

@duponline @IrishTimes @GerryMoriartyIT @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @theresa_may I make no firm prediction how it plays, but only observe that there is a risk that some of the more cavalier thinking in London increases the risk of accidents down the line.

And indeed, that applies not just to Northern Ireland. ENDS