Thread by @pmdfoster

Right. As we slough off the excesses of the holiday season, here are my five 'known unknowns' about the coming #Brexit negotiation....

First up: Will Boris listen to business? 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…

.@BorisJohnson is, after all, the PM who (as my colleague @JamesCrisp6 revealed) memorably replied 'f*** business' when asked in June 2018 why fears of industry were not being given more consideration in Brexit...it was quite a statement, but it points to a key question. /2

@BorisJohnson @JamesCrisp6 Is the Boris Johnson who quit over the Chequers Deal and the inexorable slide to the EU's single market for goods, going to put his money where his mouth is - or was? /3

@BorisJohnson @JamesCrisp6 His emotional attachment to not being trapped in EU regulatory orbit is clear, but can it avoid the relentless pull of trade gravity?

Mr Johnson wants to put UK trade with EU on essentially the same terms as that of Canada - which will have big negative effects. /4

@BorisJohnson @JamesCrisp6 Canada sends 8% of exports to EU...the UK 45%! It's a bold move to build those barriers when @SMMT warns of slashed production @Foodanddrinkfed warns of 'hidden hard #Brexit ...not to mention hit on services - look at what an FTA delivers in these charts from @SamuelMarcLowe /5

@BorisJohnson @JamesCrisp6 @SMMT @Foodanddrinkfed @SamuelMarcLowe No.2: can #Brexit be banished to the business pages?

Which is to say, can #Brexit just be a nerdy technical discussion taking place in the background of daily life rather than a cliff-edge that leaves the country constantly quailing?

Maybe. But... /6

@BorisJohnson @JamesCrisp6 @SMMT @Foodanddrinkfed @SamuelMarcLowe It seems hard to reconcile plans to yank the UK brutally out of the EU single market after 30-odd years with a quiet #Brexit life.

Which raises the next question: what is the new 'deliverable' from Brexit? /7

@BorisJohnson @JamesCrisp6 @SMMT @Foodanddrinkfed @SamuelMarcLowe Until now, it was the fact of delivering (and winning the leave v remain battle)...but by winning the election, passing WAB and then exiting on January 31, Brexit. Is. Done.

Break out the bunting, hand out some blue passports, a commemorative coin...then what? /8

@BorisJohnson @JamesCrisp6 @SMMT @Foodanddrinkfed @SamuelMarcLowe Get on with running the country; focus coddling the 'new' Tory electorate in the midlands/north seems to be the answer...while just ignoring #Brexit as a thing?

So no more fish for the fishermen. Or certainty for business (other than uncertainty). Or constitutional cohesion./9

@BorisJohnson @JamesCrisp6 @SMMT @Foodanddrinkfed @SamuelMarcLowe Maybe that works - if @BorisJohnson says it's all going great, perhaps that's enough. If there is no effective opposition, perhaps no-one will notice the government working to make business conditions tougher (and new Tory heartlands) proportionately poorer. Maybe. /10

@BorisJohnson @JamesCrisp6 @SMMT @Foodanddrinkfed @SamuelMarcLowe No. 3: How will the Irish 'frontstop' work?

See threads passim on this, but in all the excitement about THE DEAL in October/November and then the General Election, there wasn't much interrogation of the deal itself. /11

@BorisJohnson @JamesCrisp6 @SMMT @Foodanddrinkfed @SamuelMarcLowe Which is quite remarkable when you stop to think about it.

A Conservative and Unionist prime minister has consigned a part of the Union (Northern Ireland) to a special status in Europe without the consent of the province’s leading Unionist political party. /12

@BorisJohnson @JamesCrisp6 @SMMT @Foodanddrinkfed @SamuelMarcLowe .@duponline has called the deal “absurd” and “unconstitutional”; the NI police chief has warned of the risk of Loyalist disorder and @hmtreasury has warned the new Irish Sea trade border will be “highly disruptive to the NI economy”...but rest of UK doesn't seem too bothered. /13

The truth is, at this point, we really don't know how thick that new Irish Sea border will be....or how readily the NI communities will accept it...could go either way, I reckon. My third 'known unknown' /14

No 4. Will the UK really dare to diverge?

The answers to Qs 1-3 above ultimately depend on the extent to which Mr Johnson decides to diverge from the EU’s regulatory and trading orbit.

Will he talk tough, but act small for a quiet life. Just to 'Get. Brexit. Done'?/15

This is the big imponderable, since as we saw in last phase, @BorisJohnson can talk big - on immigration, on trade deals, on 'global Britain' - but quickly pivot when he needs to. How do you ever know what to believe? That itself creates confidence issues /16

@BorisJohnson The logic points to acting small (lot of presumption out there he will) but that maybe to underestimate how Johnson and co understand their new mandate; how binary some of the decisions may become...and how much they believe they can do a basic FTA without anyone noticing. /17

@BorisJohnson Round and round we go. Which brings us to final 'known unknown':

No 5: What will the transition period look like after December 2020?

Because as @MichelBarnier and co keep saying, everything can't be done by Dec 31 2020 /18

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier The negotiation isn't even 11 months, if you take in time for mandates to be agreed and ratification by European Parliament...you have March-November to negotiate. So even the most ardent optimist (as we must all be now) will accept that an entire new relationship can be built/19

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier So the question is 'what then'?

The Article 50 'full-fat' transition puts a completely watertight legal roof over our heads as we refitted relationship...without it, the cover will be necessarily leakier. More open to the elements. But how much? /20

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier Tricky to say at this stage. Will depend on UK attitudes and ambitions? On the politics of talks, on a fishing deal etc etc.

It won't be a flat 'no deal' since we do have a divorce deal, but to a lot of businesses it might not look *that* different. /21

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier France (the only serious EU military power) will have a security plan with UK outside the EU Treaties, and if have a basic FTA provisionally agreed, then the all unfinished business (data, services, audiovisual etc) can be built on over time. /22

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier That could be quite an orderly process, with EU goodwill and mutual interest.

Or it could be a hard exit/WTO exit....and then a similar process, but just with storm blowing, the roof leaking and the bare wires (recently ripped from the walls) sparking in the rain. /23

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier What an embarrassing amount of things to admit to being unsure about.

Y'all will be first to know when the fog patches clear.

ENDS