Thread by @pmdfoster

This is a must-read from @tconnellyRTE as ever - it probes how the Irish 'frontstop' might work, and what it might mean for Northern Irish business and consumers and Unionist/Loyalist politics. Couple quicks thoughts...1/Thread

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1205748806999920640

@tconnellyRTE As Tony points out, there are TWO unknowns here, and they boy impact each other when it comes to operationalising the frontstop:

1) the shape of UK/EU future trade deal

2) HOW the frontstop is implemented

Summed up in this table /2

@tconnellyRTE We know @BorisJohnson wants a 'zero-tariff, zero-quota' FTA - but we don't know if he'll swallow the LPF conditions needed to get it.
But either way - FTA or not - goods entering NI deemed 'at risk' of going South to single market will pay tariffs or have to do rules of origin/3

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson Which brings us to the second part: how aggressively the Joint Cmme will apply the filter....as Tony's piece reflects, there seems to be different views about how this will work. Irish are sanguine, but some other member states less so, concerned about risk if too leaky /4

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson Was in Brussels last week and heard some quite tough chat from EU officials - one said that "85% to 95%" would of goods would be deemed 'at risk' on basis "How do you know an egg is a retail product or an input?"

And all manufacturing inputs will be in 'red' channel. /5

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson Prof Alan Winters at @uk_tpo has put the total figure at nearly 70% - which as groups like @ManufacturingNI
@MichaelAodhan (quoted also in TC's piece) warn would be unworkable. /6

blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2019/12/…

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson @uk_tpo @ManufacturingNI @MichaelAodhan I've heard some estimates that processing a single mixed consignment of goods into NI from GB could cost carry several £000s of additional costs - as the HMT slides warns, that means higher prices in NI, retail jobs at risk, a third of products facing equivalent of tariffs /7

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson @uk_tpo @ManufacturingNI @MichaelAodhan Now all of this is subject to caveats that a) everyone is slightly guessing at this point & b) that everyone, even HMT, is lobbying for particularly outcomes. The biz groups want it, obviously, to be as low-friction as poss, so maximise concerns /8

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson @uk_tpo @ManufacturingNI @MichaelAodhan The Treasury does not have a monopoly of opinion on the UK side.

UK negotiators will note that, for all the hard noises in some parts of EU commission on how they will apply the filter, the EU has 'best endeavours' commitment to make it work. /9

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson @uk_tpo @ManufacturingNI @MichaelAodhan It will be interesting to see whether Irish inputs - TC notes Irish have special consultative position in the process - could temper Commission zeal or member states refusing to agree to accept too much 'risk' to make the Frontstop work. /10

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson @uk_tpo @ManufacturingNI @MichaelAodhan Because of course the N-S 'alternative arrangements' border was ruled out because of fears of Republican resistance. As @hayward_katy noted in her brilliant paper, border that don't have consent don't work.

This, below, was written with N=S border in mind, but cuts both ways/11

@tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson @uk_tpo @ManufacturingNI @MichaelAodhan @hayward_katy Clearly the British 'blunt force' reference applies differently here to an E-W border, but if the border is too onerous/costly should we fear Loyalist pickets making it unworkable? I don't know the answer to that, but @TomMcTague raised it
recently/12

theatlantic.com/international/…

There is a very large spectrum of possibilities about how this plays out over the next couple of years.

It could blow up spectacularly, or all just simmer down to a 'new normal'

But it is a multi-dimensional issue: London- Brussels-Belfast-Dublin all with responsibility. /13END